259
FXUS65 KMSO 192047
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
147 PM MST THU FEB 19 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM BRINGS A BURST OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO
NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
- SPOTTY, BUT LOCALLY-INTENSE, SNOW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON TRAVEL WITH QUICK ACCUMULATIONS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY.
- A POTENT, MOISTURE-LADEN SYSTEM ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN SNOW AND WIDESPREAD, BUT HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN MIX OF, PRECIPITATION TO THE VALLEYS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BOTTOMED OUT FOLLOWING THE RECENT ARCTIC PUSH.
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, A FAST-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY
MAX AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS FROM WEST TO EAST. A QUICK
BURST OF SNOW AND WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH IS LOOKING FAIRLY LIKELY. A
QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AROUND GRANGEVILLE, KAMIAH,
PIERCE, AND PASSES ALONG THE MT-ID BORDER. LIGHTER INTENSITY YET
NEARLY- STEADY SNOW IS EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST MONTANA AT ALL
ELEVATIONS ACROSS LINCOLN, SANDERS, FLATHEAD, AND EVEN LAKE
COUNTIES WITH JUST A BRIEF UPTICK IN INTENSITIES WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME DUE TO ICY CONDITIONS ALREADY PRESENT
IN NORTHWESTERN MONTANA AND THE SYSTEM'S PROGRESSIVE NATURE
LIMITING TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
AND THE ISSUANCE OF SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS PREFERRED AT THIS
TIME TO COVER BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN TRAVEL CONDITIONS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, REINFORCED COLD AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES FURTHER AND TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THESE SPOTTY, MODERATELY INTENSE
SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW,
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS, AND QUICK ACCUMULATIONS THAT WILL EASILY
STICK TO THE COLD ROAD SURFACES.
A TRANSIENT RIDGE BUILDS THIS WEEKEND, KEEPING CONDITIONS COOL ON
SATURDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO
SUNDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARMING ALOFT SHOULD
ERODE MOST VALLEY INVERSIONS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ARRIVES IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS HIGHLY LIKELY, BRINGING
SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN SNOW. THE FORECAST FOR VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS
BELOW 5,000 FEET IS MUCH MORE COMPLEX WITH A MASSIVE SPREAD
(2,500-5,500FT) IN POTENTIAL SNOW LEVELS. DEEP OR VERY SHELTERED
VALLEYS (SEELEY, SWAN, VALLEYS OF NW MONTANA) MAY TRAP COLD AIR
MORE EFFICIENTLY DURING THE WEEKEND RIDGING, LEADING TO CONCERNS
OF FREEZING RAIN AND MIXED RAIN/SNOW AS WARMER AIR RIDES UP AND
OVER THE REGION. GLOBAL MODEL SOUNDINGS AT THIS TIME SUGGEST THAT
THE WARM AIR INTRUSION MAY BE VERY SHALLOW OR NOT WARM ENOUGH TO
OVERRIDE SNOW AS THE MAIN P-TYPE EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS MISSOULA. WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW WARM WE GET THIS WEEKEND AND HOW DEEP
THE WARM SOUTHWESTERLIES BECOME, AT THIS POINT, PRIMARY
DISCREPANCIES TO THE FORECAST MIGHT JUST BE SNOW-TO-LQUID RATIOS
AND HOW MUCH SNOW ACTUALLY STICKS AS OPPOSED TO RAIN VS SNOW. THIS
IS A TIME PERIOD WORTH WATCHING CLOSELY.
ACTIVE, WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT WAVE TIMING AND INTENSITY REMAINS RATHER LOW.
AVIATION
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, A FAST-MOVING WAVE
BRINGS A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW TO THE REGION RAPIDLY LOWERING
FLIGHT CONDITIONS. RIDGETOP WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO DUE
WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AT 20-30 KNOTS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS GENERALLY
IMPROVE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS, BUT SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL CAUSE PERIODIC, SUDDEN DROPS IN VISIBILITY
AND CEILINGS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTION.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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