837
FXUS65 KMSO 201101
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
401 AM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BRING SOME SNOW TO NORTH-
CENTRAL IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING.
- RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND
- NEXT SYSTEM AT START OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING MOUNTAIN SNOW AND
MIXED VALLEY PRECIPITATION.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIEST
THIS MORNING. THE BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM LOWELL IDAHO UP TO MARIAS PASS MONTANA
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. THIS FEATURE IS CAUSING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW. THIS LIGHT
SNOW WILL CAUSE SOME SNOW COVERED AND ICY ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THIS
MORNINGS COMMUTE SO BE PREPARED.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING OVER REGION THIS WEEKEND
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY INVERSIONS TO DEVELOP LEADING TO THE
FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS.
THE MODELS ARE STILL ON TRACK SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH A DECENT FETCH OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE
MOUNTAINS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF RECEIVING A DECENT AMOUNT OF SNOW
(GREATER THAN 70% CHANCE OF MORE THAN 4 INCHES IN 24HRS). WHILE
THE VALLEYS WILL EXPERIENCING A WINTRY MIX FOR SNOW, FREEZING RAIN
AND RAIN.
A DISTURBANCE FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK CAUSING
SNOW LEVELS TO DROP BACK TO VALLEY FLOORS, BUT THE STREAM OF
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE PUSHED OUT OF THE REGION. WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK CAUSING
OFF AND ON LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
AVIATION
A BAND OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING. THE BAND IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING
ACROSS IDAHO COUNTY INTO WEST CENTRAL MONTANA. THE SNOW HAS
ALREADY PASSED THROUGH KGPI. KMSO AND KHRF ARE EXPECTED TO
EXPERIENCE REDUCED VISIBILITY AND LOWERED CEILINGS FROM 12Z TO 15Z
THIS MORNING. KBTM AND KSMN ARE EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED BY THIS
FEATURE BETWEEN 15Z TO 18Z. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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