164
FXUS65 KMSO 201908
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1208 PM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- QUIET WEEKEND: SNOW SHOWERS END THIS EVENING, THEN PATCHY FOG
POTENTIAL, MIX SUN/CLOUDS.
- WINTRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY/TUESDAY: MODERATE PASS LEVEL
IMPACTS, WINTRY MIX (MESSY COMMUTE POTENTIAL) IN THE VALLEYS.
- GUSTY WINDS/ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS MID NEXT WEEK
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON, LEADING
TO BRIEF ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADWAYS AND RAPIDLY CHANGING DRIVING
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE AROUND
SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FOLLOWS FOR THE WEEKEND, BRINGING A
MIX OF SUNSHINE AND HIGH-TO-MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AS DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE. PATCHY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS
WILL BE A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A WEAK-TO-MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PUSHES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. A NOTABLE CONCERN IS MODERATE IMPACTS AT PASS
LEVELS, WITH A 50-60% PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW FOR
THE MT/ID BORDER PASSES.
PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY. CURRENTLY, NBM SNOW
LEVELS APPEAR TOO HIGH FOR MONDAY MORNING GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN AND LIMITED MIXING, SO WE HAVE TRENDED THESE DOWNWARD. THIS
ADJUSTMENT INTRODUCES THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE VALLEYS OF
NORTHWEST MONTANA EARLY MONDAY. THEREAFTER, ENHANCED MIXING SHOULD ALLOW
SNOW LEVELS TO RISE, TRANSITIONING VALLEY PRECIPITATION TO A WINTRY
MIX, MOST LIKELY RAIN AND SNOW AT NIGHT, CHANGING TO RAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERALL, PREPARE FOR SLICK PASS-LEVEL ROADS
AND POTENTIALLY MESSY VALLEY ROADS, PRIMARILY DURING THE NIGHTTIME
AND MORNING PERIODS.
THE CHARACTER OF THE EVENT SHIFTS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
PASS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
ALONGSIDE A THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS AND BANDING. WE WILL BE
WATCHING THIS PERIOD CLOSELY FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT VALLEY IMPACTS.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. FRIDAY, IN PARTICULAR, STANDS OUT AMONG GUIDANCE AS A NOTABLY
WINDY PERIOD AND WILL BE ANOTHER TIMEFRAME TO MONITOR AS WE GET
CLOSER.
AVIATION
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON, LEADING
TO BRIEF ACCUMULATIONS AND LOW VISIBILITY FOR KMSO, KHRF AND
KBTM. HOWEVER, THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS, WITH PATCHY FOG EACH MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
MONTANA.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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