827
FXUS65 KMSO 212035
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
135 PM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEEKEND: EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.
- MESSY MONDAY/TUESDAY COMMUTE: PACIFIC MOISTURE RETURNS EARLY
MONDAY, BRINGING A MIX OF VALLEY SNOW AND RAIN WITH MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON MOUNTAIN PASSES.
- MIDWEEK WINDS AND SNOW: A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MORE ORGANIZED SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ARE CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY
QUIET WEEKEND ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO, WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY:
THE WEATHER PATTERN SHIFTS SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS
AND A MOIST PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. FORECAST MODELS SHOW HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA STARTING MONDAY
MORNING. EXPECT MODERATE SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAIN PASSES (LOOKOUT,
LOLO, MARIAS, LOST TRAIL), WHICH MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
THE FORECAST IS MORE COMPLEX FOR VALLEY FLOORS. INITIAL
PRECIPITATION MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY START AS SNOW,
POTENTIALLY CREATING A SLICK MORNING COMMUTE. AS WARMER AIR MOVES
IN DURING THE AFTERNOON, SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX
OR PLAIN RAIN.
NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO VALLEYS BELOW 4000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO SEE
MOSTLY RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD AS SNOW LEVELS RISE.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY:
AN UPPER-LEVEL DIP IN THE JET STREAM AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
USHER IN COOLER AIR AND INCREASE ATMOSPHERIC MIXING.
EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT WIND SPEEDS FOR WEDNESDAY, AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, THE
TREND TOWARD WINDIER AND COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK IS WELL-SUPPORTED.
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE ORGANIZED, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
BANDING WHICH CAN LEAD TO RAPID VISIBILITY CHANGES. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP BACK TO THE VALLEY FLOORS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A BREEZY
AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND:
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO LINGER AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. WHILE WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED, DAILY CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN WILL
CONTINUE, PARTICULARLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AVIATION
VFR WEATHER CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THICKENING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND A NORTHEASTERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PREVENT SURFACE SATURATION AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS OTHER THAN CONFINED AND ISOLATED STEEP
RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. RIDGETOP WINDS REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY AT
10-20 KNOTS. MIXING INCREASES BY 15-18Z SUNDAY ALLOWING 15-20 KNOT
SOUTHERLY SURFACE GUSTS TO MIX DOWN TO TERMINALS HEADING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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