614
FXUS65 KMSO 220854
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
154 AM MST SUN FEB 22 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- QUIET AND SEASONABLE SUNDAY: EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS TODAY.
- MESSY MONDAY/TUESDAY COMMUTE: PACIFIC MOISTURE RETURNS EARLY
MONDAY, BRINGING A MIX OF VALLEY SNOW AND RAIN WITH MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON MOUNTAIN PASSES.
- MIDWEEK WINDS AND SNOW: A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MORE ORGANIZED SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TODAY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
MEANWHILE, A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION WILL SPIN OFF THE
CANADIAN COAST. AS THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FLATTENS ON
MONDAY, THE PACIFIC LOW WILL SEND MOISTURE ONSHORE, REACHING
NORTHWEST MONTANA BY MONDAY MORNING. FORECAST MODELS SHOW HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY. EXPECT MODERATE SNOW FOR THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES (LOOKOUT, LOLO, MARIAS, LOST TRAIL), WHICH MAY
IMPACT TRAVEL. THE FORECAST IS MORE COMPLEX FOR VALLEY FLOORS.
INITIAL PRECIPITATION MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY START AS SNOW,
POTENTIALLY CREATING A SLICK MORNING COMMUTE. AS WARMER AIR MOVES
IN DURING THE AFTERNOON, SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX
OR JUST PLAIN RAIN. NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO VALLEYS BELOW 4000 FEET
SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE MOSTLY RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD AS SNOW
LEVELS RISE.
AN UPPER-LEVEL DIP IN THE JET STREAM AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP
TO VALLEY FLOORS. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT WIND
SPEEDS FOR WEDNESDAY, AS MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A TREND TOWARD WINDIER AND
COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME MORE ORGANIZED, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
BANDING. SNOW BANDS CAN LEAD TO RAPID DECREASES IN VISIBILITY.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A BREEZY
AFTERNOON. ALL TOLD, THE PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR THE COMING WEEK
WILL BRING MODEST TOTALS TO THE VALLEYS. HOWEVER, THE OROGRAPHIC
NATURE OF THE EVENT COULD RESULT IN A BOOST TO MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK.
ENSEMBLE DISTRIBUTIONS ARE SHOWING ABOUT A 20% CHANCE FOR 2
INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT FOR THE CABINET, SWAN,
MISSION, AND CENTRAL BITTERROOT RANGES BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
NEWS IS A LITTLE BETTER FOR THE CLEARWATER AND NORTHERN BITTERROOT
RANGES, WHERE THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 30-40% CHANCE FOR 2 INCHES.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. WHILE WIDESPREAD HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK, DAILY
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN WILL CONTINUE, PARTICULARLY FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE, ALONG WITH AN EASTERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT, THIS MORNING WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AIRSPACE. EXPECT
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO BUILD THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ARRIVING TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN
THE VICINITY OF KGPI WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE WEATHER
PATTERN SHIFTS TO A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD STARTING MONDAY.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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