833
FXUS65 KMSO 222127
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
227 PM MST SUN FEB 22 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ISSUED: TRAVEL IMPACTS OVER LOOKOUT
PASS AND MARIAS PASS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- SLICK MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE: VALLEY RAIN AND SNOW WILL
DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY, MAKING FOR A MESSY AND POTENTIALLY ICY
START TO THE WORK WEEK IN NORTHWEST MONTANA, POTENTIALLY
INCLUDING KALISPELL.
- COLDER WITH SNOW BANDING MIDWEEK: A SHARP COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND QUICK-HITTING SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
QUIET CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES GO INTO
EFFECT ON MONDAY FOR HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES WHERE TRAVEL IMPACTS
ARE MOST CERTAIN. IN THE VALLEYS, A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED MONDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A COLDER, WINDIER PERIOD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.
MOUNTAIN PASSES: EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT. TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT,
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ON THE PEAKS. BLOWING SNOW MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY.
VALLEYS: LIGHT SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX WILL DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. BECAUSE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING, THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE COULD BE SLICK. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, MOST VALLEYS
WILL TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL RAIN AS WARMER AIR MOVES
IN. NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO VALLEYS WILL SEE PRIMARILY RAIN BELOW
4,000 FEET.
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND RAIN WILL TURN
BACK TO SNOW IN THE VALLEYS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS. THESE SNOW BANDS CAN CAUSE SUDDEN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
EVEN IF TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN MODEST. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR
THE SNOW BANDS TO DEVELOP EARLIER IN THE DAY AND FOCUS FARTHER
SOUTH, POTENTIALLY BRINGING THE HIGHEST IMPACTS FROM NEAR LOST
TRAIL PASS AND SOUTH AND EAST.
COLDER AIR SETTLES IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WHILE THE
MAIN MOISTURE PLUME EXITS, THE REGION REMAINS IN A NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN. THIS MEANS, OFF-AND-ON LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.
EARLY INDICATIONS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE BY
SATURDAY, KEEPING THE UNSETTLED TREND ALIVE.
AVIATION
VFR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PRIMARY HAZARDS ARE MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY
MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN NORTHWEST MONTANA LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALSO INCREASE
REGION WIDE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY, GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS BY
THE AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
WEST GLACIER REGION.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
LOWER CLARK FORK REGION.
ID...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page