697
FXUS65 KMSO 230857
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
157 AM MST MON FEB 23 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ISSUED: TRAVEL IMPACTS OVER LOOKOUT
PASS AND MARIAS PASS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
- SLICK MORNING COMMUTE: VALLEY RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY
THIS MORNING, MAKING FOR A MESSY AND POTENTIALLY ICY START TO
THE WORK WEEK IN NORTHWEST MONTANA INCLUDING KALISPELL.
- COLDER WITH SNOW BANDING MIDWEEK: A SHARP COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND QUICK-HITTING SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATES A LOW PRESSURE
CIRCULATION OFF THE CANADIAN COAST SENDING PACIFIC MOISTURE
ONSHORE AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. RADAR RETURNS INDICATE
PRECIPITATION MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND INTO
NORTHWEST MONTANA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAVOR OF THIS MOISTURE
PLUME THICKENING TODAY AND EXPANDING SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR HIGHER MOUNTAIN
PASSES WHERE TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE MOST CERTAIN. EXPECT A WINTRY MIX
IN THE VALLEYS, FOLLOWED BY A COLDER, WINDIER PERIOD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MOUNTAIN PASSES: EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN THIS MORNING. TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT,
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ON THE PEAKS. BLOWING SNOW MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY.
VALLEYS: LIGHT SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING. BECAUSE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING, THE MORNING
COMMUTE COULD BE SLICK. BY THIS AFTERNOON, MOST VALLEYS WILL
TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL RAIN AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN.
NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO VALLEYS WILL SEE PRIMARILY RAIN BELOW 4,000
FEET.
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND RAIN WILL TURN
BACK TO SNOW IN THE VALLEYS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS. THESE SNOW BANDS CAN CAUSE SUDDEN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
EVEN IF TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN MODEST. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR
THE SNOW BANDS TO DEVELOP EARLIER IN THE DAY AND FOCUS FARTHER
SOUTH, POTENTIALLY BRINGING THE HIGHEST IMPACTS FROM NEAR LOST
TRAIL PASS AND SOUTH AND EAST.
COLDER AIR SETTLES IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WHILE THE
MAIN MOISTURE PLUME EXITS, THE REGION REMAINS IN A NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN. THIS MEANS, OFF-AND-ON LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.
EARLY INDICATIONS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE BY
SATURDAY, KEEPING THE UNSETTLED TREND ALIVE.
AVIATION
PRECIPITATION, STARTING IN THE FORM OF SNOW, WILL
AFFECT KGPI THIS MORNING. EXPECT DECREASING CEILINGS AND PERIODS
OF DECREASED VISIBILITY DOWN TO MVFR/IFR THROUGH ABOUT 23/1700Z.
PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPAND TO
INCLUDE TERMINALS FURTHER SOUTH (KMSO, KBTM, KHRF) THIS EVENING.
EXPECT OBSCURED TERRAIN ACROSS ALL MOUNTAIN RANGES OF NORTHWEST
AND WEST-CENTRAL MONTANA, AS WELL AS THE CLEARWATERS IN IDAHO.
WIND WILL ACCOMPANY PRECIPITATION TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO ABOUT 20-30 KTS WILL BE WIDESPREAD, WITH GUSTS OF
30-40 KTS AT KBTM.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
KOOTENAI/CABINET REGION.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 5 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR WEST GLACIER REGION.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR LOWER CLARK FORK REGION.
ID...NONE.
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