665
FXUS65 KMSO 140831
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
231 AM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- A COLD FRONT TODAY WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.
- THE COLD FRONT TODAY WILL ALSO CAUSE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY SOME SNOW SQUALLS.
- A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION STARTING SUNDAY WILL CAUSE A
WARMING TREND.
TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED WARM OVER NIGHT DUE TO THE THICK CLOUD
COVER, HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT COMING FROM THE NORTH TODAY WILL
CHANGE THAT. AFTER A WARM NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY, MEANING THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY WILL OCCUR
BEFORE NOON IN MOST PLACES. PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO DECREASE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, THE INCREASING SOLAR
ANGLE, THE RECENT MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, AND A COOLER AIR
MASS ALOFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE TO CAUSE SNOW
SHOWERS. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL RISE TO
THE LEVEL OF SNOW SQUALLS WHICH CAUSE SUDDEN CHANGES IN ROAD
CONDITIONS. SNOW SQUALLS CAUSE A RAPID DECREASE IN VISIBILITY AND
A SUDDEN TEMPERATURE DROP THAT CAN CAUSE ROADS TO FREEZE UP
QUICKLY, ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING AS THE SUN GETS LOW.
BY SUNDAY, A RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN OVER THE AREA. AGAIN, THE
RECENT MOISTURE AND THE INCREASING SOLAR ANGLE WILL CAUSE SOME
SHOWERS, BUT THE BUILDING RIDGE SUPPRESS THEM SO THEY DON'T GET
VERY STRONG. MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER. MID AND
LATE NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN MONTANA WILL BE APPROACHING
60 DEGREES AND SOME PLACES IN CENTRAL IDAHO WILL BE AROUND 70
DEGREES DURING THE DAY.
AVIATION
THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS MORNING
UNTIL A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH PUSHES IT OUT. AS A RESULT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING AT AREA TERMINALS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY. MOST TERMINALS, EXCEPT
KSMN, WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW WHEN THIS HAPPENS. BEHIND THE
FRONT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP, SOME OF THE APPROACHING SNOW
SQUALL CONDITIONS. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY HIGH SOLAR ANGLE IN
MARCH, MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL MELT ON CLEARED SURFACES DURING THE
DAY. HOWEVER, SOME SLUSHY ACCUMULATION CAN'T BE RULED OUT UNDER
HEAVIER SHOWERS. ONCE THE SUN STARTS GETTING LOW, ANY SHOWERS AT
AREA TERMINALS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT... WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR
BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS...LOWER CLARK FORK REGION...
POTOMAC/SEELEY LAKE REGION...WEST GLACIER REGION.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
FLATHEAD/MISSION VALLEYS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION.
ID...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOWER HELLS CANYON/SALMON
RIVER REGION...NORTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS...
OROFINO/GRANGEVILLE REGION...SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR NORTHERN
CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
EASTERN LEMHI COUNTY...WESTERN LEMHI COUNTY.
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