380
FXUS65 KMSO 141911
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
111 PM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH-IMPACT SNOW SQUALLS THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING: INCREASING
THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS, WHITEOUT CONDITIONS, AND ICY ROADWAYS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR I-90 LOOKOUT PASS TO HOMESTAKE PASS
AND HIGHWAY 12/200.
- COLD START ON SUNDAY: AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES, EXPECT
MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN IDAHO AND SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS IN WESTERN MONTANA.
- SNOWY MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE: A WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, BRINGING
A SNOWY START TO THE WORK WEEK FOR MANY VALLEYS.
- LATE-WEEK WARM-UP: A STRONG HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S AND 60S BY MID-WEEK.
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTH FROM CANADA, MARKING
THE END OF THE RECENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER AND BRINGING A MUCH COLDER
AIR MASS TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TODAY, AS THE FRONT INTERACTS
WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY, WE EXPECT
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN ARE SNOW
SQUALLS ALONG THE I-90 AND HWY 200 CORRIDORS BY THIS EVENING.
THESE CAN CAUSE SUDDEN, NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITY AND A FLASH FREEZE
ON ROADS THAT WERE WET EARLIER IN THE DAY.
SUNDAY STARTS COLD BUT RELATIVELY QUIET UNDER A BRIEF RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER, THIS REPRIEVE IS SHORT-LIVED. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION.
WITH COOLER AIR IN PLACE, PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS SNOW
FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A SNOWY MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHWEST MONTANA AND THE
MISSOULA/BITTERROOT VALLEYS, BEFORE SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY RISE AND
TRANSITION TO RAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE PROGGED TO SOAR
15-20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES, WITH LOWER VALLEYS LIKELY
REACHING THE MID-60S. WHILE THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT
STABILITY, MOISTURE STREAMING OVER THE RIDGE CREST, OFTEN REFERRED
TO AS DIRTY RIDGE, WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS.
AVIATION
SNOW SQUALLS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN AVIATION
CONCERNS THROUGH THIS EVENING, AS AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. VALLEYS WILL SEE WIND GUSTS COMMONLY BETWEEN
30-40 KNOTS. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE CONVECTIVE SNOW SQUALLS
BETWEEN 21Z AND 04Z, WHICH MAY CAUSE SUDDEN DROPS IN VERTICAL
VISIBILITY (VV002) AND HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY BELOW 1/2SM.
MOUNTAINS WILL BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED IN CLOUDS AND SNOW.
CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING UNDER A TRANSIT
RIDGE, BUT A SECOND ROUND OF MVR/IFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
EVENING AS WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING SNOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT, MAINTAINING LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS...BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION...
LOWER CLARK FORK REGION...MISSOULA/BITTERROOT VALLEYS...
POTOMAC/SEELEY LAKE REGION.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
FLATHEAD/MISSION VALLEYS.
ID...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOWER HELLS
CANYON/SALMON RIVER REGION...NORTHERN CLEARWATER
MOUNTAINS...OROFINO/GRANGEVILLE REGION...SOUTHERN
CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN LEMHI
COUNTY...WESTERN LEMHI COUNTY.
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