852
FXUS65 KMSO 150855
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
255 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- A RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN WEST OF THE REGION TODAY, AND
MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THAT RIDGE WILL CAUSE RISING SNOW LEVELS
AND LIGHT SHOWERS.
- MID WEEK ONWARD WILL BE 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH
15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABLE BY NEXT WEEKEND.
A RIDGE STARTS BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY, LEAVING
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. THIS WILL
ALLOW SOME CONVECTION OVER THE REGION, BUT THE BUILDING RIDGE
UPSTREAM WILL WORK TO SUPPRESS THE CONVECTION RESULTING IN LIGHTER
SHOWERS, MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS OVER THE
VALLEYS TODAY.
TONIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP AROUND 10,000 FT, WHICH
WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION AS PART OF A WARM FRONT. THE
WARM FRONT IS A LIFT MECHANISM THAT WILL HELP TO GENERATE SOME
PRECIPITATION, WHILE THE WARMER AIR ITSELF WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVELS
TO RISE. THE LIFT FROM THE WARM FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH LIFT FROM
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVING UP, OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW AT HIGH ELEVATIONS.
MONDAY AFTERNOON SNOW LEVELS WILL HAVE ALREADY RISEN BACK TO 5,000
TO 8,000 FT ACROSS THE REGION. STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THE VALLEYS
TO ABOUT HALF AN INCH IN THE UPPER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPS WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION ALL WEEK, AND
AROUND TUESDAY MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND CLOSER TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
A RIDGE STARTS BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TODAY, LEAVING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME CONVECTION OVER THE REGION, BUT THE
BUILDING RIDGE UPSTREAM WILL WORK TO SUPPRESS THE CONVECTION
RESULTING IN LIGHTER SHOWERS, MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS OVER THE VALLEYS TODAY. TONIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL
CAUSE RAPIDLY RISING SNOW LEVELS AND LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN.
PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS SNOW WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
IMPACTS FROM SNOW AT AREA TERMINALS RANGING FROM 20 PERCENT TO 50
PERCENT PEAKING AROUND 16/12Z.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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