104
FXUS65 KMSO 220825
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
225 AM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MUCH OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
- NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS.
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BE UNDER A MILD AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITIES AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISKS ALONG
THE DIVIDE IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND ACROSS LEMHI COUNTY, ID.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM
ARRIVING TUESDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FOCUSING ACROSS
NORTHWEST MONTANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
FROM 4,000-4,500 FEET TUESDAY MORNING TO 6,000-6,500 FEET TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL COME
CRASHING DOWN WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVING.
PRESSURE RISES ALONG THIS FRONT WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST WIND GUST
POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA, WHERE PEAK VALLEY WIND GUSTS
WILL RANGE FROM 35-45 MPH, WITH GUSTS OF 50-65 MPH ACROSS
MOUNTAIN RIDGETOPS AND CRESTS. VALLEY AREAS ALONG THE US HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR WEST OF KALISPELL TO LIBBY ARE BEING MONITORED FOR HIGHER
GUSTS, GIVEN STATISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWING A 30-40% CHANCE FOR GUSTS
OF 50 MPH OR GREATER.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE UNDER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW INTO
THURSDAY, BEFORE THE NEXT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN
STRONG AGREEMENT (90% OF MEMBERS) FOR THIS RIDGE TO BRING A STARK
WARMING TREND, WITH VALLEYS SEEING HIGHS REACH INTO THE 60S AND
70S BY NEXT SATURDAY.
AVIATION
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING HIGHLIGHTS A
DRY AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AIRSPACE, WITH CLOUD
COVER GRADUALLY DECREASING. GIVEN CLEARING SKIES, PATCHY VALLEY
FOG WILL FORM THROUGH 22/1300Z, ALONG AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER.
DEEP MIXING THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROMOTE WIND GUSTS OF 15-20KTS
ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA TERMINALS.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR FLATHEAD/MISSION VALLEYS...
KOOTENAI/CABINET REGION...LOWER CLARK FORK REGION.
ID...NONE.
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