424
FXUS65 KMSO 221826
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1226 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MUCH OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
- NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS.
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BE UNDER A MILD AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN TODAY INTO MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITIES AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISKS ALONG THE
DIVIDE IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND ACROSS LEMHI COUNTY, ID.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE
TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS COLD FRONT AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, PREFRONTAL. WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES, DRY CONDITIONS, AND VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST MT, THIS WILL BE THE DAY WITH HIGHEST
CONCERNS FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER.
WEDNESDAY WILL PRODUCE MODEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL ID AND NORTHWEST MT. HOWEVER, SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO
6000 - 6500 FEET, LIMITING THE CONCERNS OF WINTER WEATHER TRAVEL
IMPACTS EVEN AT MOUNTAIN PASSES. WINDS WITH THE FRONT WILL BE A
CONCERN AS GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON IN VALLEYS AND 50 TO
65 MPH IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS (HIGHEST WINDS IN NORTHWEST MT).
THE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN CAMPED OUT IN THE GULF ALASKA WILL YET
AGAIN ELONGATE, ALLOWING FOR A RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN DOWNSTREAM OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO END THE WEEK. WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
ON THE STRENGTH AND LONGEVITY OF THE RIDGE WITHIN THE MODELS,
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BENIGN
WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
SOME WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KGPI,
MSO AND KBTM UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS AS HIGH LEVELS CLOUDS STREAMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL KEEP FAIR
FLYING CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE BIGGEST
CONCERN WILL BE THE REDEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF
NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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