106
FXUS65 KMSO 230813
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
213 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPTIATION, HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW, AND GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS.
- WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
UNDER A MILD AND DRY WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN, WITH NUMEROUS
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS VALLEY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
READINGS 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL.
THE NEXT SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT FOR A SHORT LIVED ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER EVENT TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHWEST
MONTANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO. THIS SUBTROPICAL AIR MASS WILL
BRING RISING SNOW LEVELS, WITH RAIN FALLING UP TO 6,500-7,500
FEET TUESDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR
VALLEY AREAS AS A POTENT COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. TWO AREAS STAND OUT FOR
THE STRONGEST WINDS, WITH PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS OF 50 MPH OR
GREATER REACHING 30-50 PERCENT.
- NORTHWEST MONTANA: US HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR WEST OF KALISPELL TO
LIBBY AND IN THE GLACIER PARK REGION.
- LEMHI COUNTY, ID THROUGH SOUTHWEST MONTANA ALONG THE DIVIDE.
SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATING ACROSS MOUNTAIN PASSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. OVERALL, ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE MINOR (1-4 INCHES),
BUT TRAVELERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR PERIODS OF WINTER DRIVING
CONDITIONS.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT FOR A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARMING 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL KEEP VFR FLYING CONDITIONS
OVER THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM OVERHEAD. WESTERLY BREEZES WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON, WITH PERIODIC GUSTS OF 10-15KTS FOR AREA TERMINALS.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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