989
FXUS65 KMSO 260832
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
232 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- MOUNTAIN SNOW: MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ON MOUNTAIN
PASSES THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2
INCHES.
- MILD WEEKEND: A WARMING TREND BEGINS FRIDAY, BRINGING ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY.
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM A WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING, BRINGING MINOR
TRAVEL IMPACTS TO MOUNTAIN PASSES IN WESTERN MONTANA. MOISTURE
WILL FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, AROUND THE NOON
HOUR. BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY AS WELL, BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THEY WERE ON WEDNESDAY. THE
STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-90 WHERE THERE IS A 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR GUSTS REACHING
40 MPH. THE VALLEYS WILL SEE GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH OR LESS, WITH
ONLY A 20 TO 25 PERCENT PROBABILITY THEY WILL EXCEED 30 MPH.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES FRIDAY, AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND TO THE
REGION, WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
A CHANGE BACK TO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CURRENTLY, 60 PERCENT OF THE FORECAST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE THIS
CHANGE ARRIVING AS EARLY AS MONDAY, WITH THE REMAINING 40 PERCENT
DELAYING IT UNTIL WEDNESDAY. EITHER WAY, A RETURN OF MOUNTAIN SNOW
AND VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED, AND TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO
WHERE THEY SHOULD BE THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S IN WESTERN MONTANA AND 60S IN NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO.
AVIATION
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM A WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING, LIGHT
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS. MOISTURE WILL FINALLY MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, AROUND 26/1800Z. BREEZY WEST SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY AS WELL, BUT NOT AS STRONG
AS THEY WERE ON WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KNOTS IS
EXPECTED FOR ALL AVIATION TERMINALS FROM 26/1800Z TO 27/0300Z THIS
EVENING.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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