260
FXUS65 KMSO 270756
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
156 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL MOSTLY JUST BE A NUISANCE.
- EXPECT A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- ACTIVE WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK: UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE
EXACT TIMING OF COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER. EXPECT A RETURN TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION.
BREEZY WEST WINDS, WITH VALLEY GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH, WILL REMAIN A
NUISANCE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
OTHERWISE, AS WE END THE WORK WEEK TODAY, A RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL
GIVE US A VERY COMFORTABLE, WARM, AND DRY WEEKEND. EXPECT COOL
MORNINGS NEAR FREEZING AND AFTERNOON HIGHS PUSHING WELL INTO THE
50S AND 60S FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS, AND NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER
RIVER VALLEYS OF IDAHO, UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND LEMHI COUNTY, THIS AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY. SO, CONDITIONS WILL BE PRETTY DRY AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE LEVELS START TO DROP QUITE A BIT AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ABOUT A 70% CHANCE FOR A FAST-MOVING WEATHER
SYSTEM TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY, BUT THE EXACT TIMING
AND STRENGTH REMAIN UNCERTAIN. THIS SYSTEM WOULD BRING A COLD
FRONT, LEADING TO INCREASING WINDS, HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN OR
SNOW, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
REGARDLESS OF WHEN THIS INITIAL SYSTEM ARRIVES, IT WILL OPEN THE
DOOR FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RAMP UP AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
CURRENTLY, THERE IS ABOUT AN 80% CHANCE FOR A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE (TROUGH) TO SETTLE OVER THE ENTIRE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-3). THIS LOOKS LIKE THE COOLEST
AND WETTEST TIMEFRAME REGION-WIDE OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. THERE
IS EVEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON
VALLEY FLOORS LATE NEXT WEEK. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, SO WE
ADVISE FOLKS TO MONITOR THIS EVOLVING SITUATION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS THE FORECAST BECOMES CLEARER.
AVIATION
BREEZY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS EARLIER IN THE
WEEK. WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AVIATION
TERMINALS THROUGH 0300Z THIS EVENING. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
CREATE A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS,
POTENTIALLY OBSCURING HIGHER TERRAIN AND BRIEFLY LOWERING CEILINGS
AT AREA TERMINALS. THIS IS MOST LIKELY IN NORTHWEST MONTANA,
INCLUDING AT KGPI. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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