662
FXUS65 KMSO 281903
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
103 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
DISCUSSION
- EXPECT A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
- COLD FRONT PASSAGE MONDAY BRINGING COOLER, BREEZY AND SHOWERY
CONDITIONS
- NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WORK WEEK
HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING,
STILL TODAY REMAINS ON TRACK FOR ANOTHER WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE DAY FOR ALL WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS IN SOUTHWEST MT.
ADD IN SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES 15 TO 25 MPH AND THERE ARE ELEVATED
CONCERNS FOR FIRE WEATHER, MAINLY IN SW MT AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS
THOSE CLOUDS MEAN AN INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS ALONG WITH BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY APPEAR TO BE
RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. LOOKOUT AND
MARIAS PASSES EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE MOST SNOW DURING THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH TOTALS BEING AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. LOLO AND LOST TRAIL COULD RECEIVE 1 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW. THE MAJORITY OF WESTERN MONTANA IS EXPECTED TO
EXPERIENCE GUSTS OF 20 TO 40 MPH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THE BIGGEST
CONCERN WILL BE CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON FLATHEAD LAKE.
IT IS SPRING AND A TRANSITORY RIDGE BUILDS IN IMMEDIATELY TUESDAY,
BRINGING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. BY THURSDAY, OUR NEXT SYSTEM
ARRIVES AND WHILE THERE ARE MANY DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH,
LOCATION, AND TIMING, WHAT IS CLEAR IS THE MODELS ARE CONFIDENT
IN SOME SORT OF SYSTEM. THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS A RETURN TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES, DECENT PRECIPITATION CLOSEST TO THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM, AND MOUNTAINS SNOW.
AVIATION
FAIR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AIRSPACE.
WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON TODAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION AS EARLY AS
18Z SUNDAY.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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