635
FXUS65 KMSO 111927
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
127 PM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
- LINGER SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- A COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL CLOSED LOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY ALONG WITH
SOME MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN HAS
ALLOWED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MAINLY BRINGING LIGHT RAIN,
WHILE THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS
AND LIGHTNING. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT.
ON SUNDAY, A PULSE OF ENERGY FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MAKE ITS WAY UP INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THAT THIS FEATURE WILL STALL OVER
NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO INTO WEST CENTRAL MONTANA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING KEEPING THIS PORTION OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES UNDER
FAIRLY STEADY PRECIPITATION. THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO SHIFT NORTH OR SOUTH OF THIS CURRENT FORECASTED
LOCATION. IDAHO AND CLEARWATER COUNTIES SHOULD ANTICIPATE BETWEEN
0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES OF MOISTURE AND WEST CENTRAL MONTANA RECEIVING
0.25 TO 1 INCH DURING THIS PERIOD. SNOW LEVELS APPEAR TO HOVER
AROUND 5000 TO 6000 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING WITH LOLO, LOST TRAIL
AND HOMESTAKE POTENTIALLY RECEIVING AN INCH OR TWO OF SLUSHY SNOW.
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BE UNDER WESTERLY (ZONAL) FLOW BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST MONTANA. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ALL THE MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES
TO DROP WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME YEAR ALONG WITH
SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO AROUND 1000-2000 FEET BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THE MAJORITY OF
THE REGION SHOULD RECEIVE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY THURSDAY
MORNING EVEN IN THE VALLEYS. THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AND HIGHER
ELEVATION VALLEYS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA COULD HAVE MODERATE IMPACTS
FROM THE SNOW.
AVIATION
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OBSCURING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOUNTAIN TOPS AT TIMES WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONVECTION ONLY PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. A DISTURBANCE WILL
PUSH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page