370
FXUS65 KMSO 121946
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
146 PM MDT SUN APR 12 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- TONIGHT-MONDAY: WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
ABOVE 5000 FEET.
- WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT, SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
AROUND 1500 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT VALLEY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND MODERATE TRAVEL IMPACTS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SATELLITE AND RADAR IS SHOWING THAT THE LOWERED CLOUD DECK IS
MAKING ITS WAY INTO NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO AND WEST CENTRAL MONTANA.
WHILE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS STILL LINGERING IN SOUTHERN
IDAHO. THE PRECIPITATION WILL STEADILY MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. IDAHO AND CLEARWATER
COUNTIES WILL RECEIVE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS
EVENT. THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING ON HOW THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION
WILL DRAPE OVER WESTERN MONTANA TONIGHT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING THE BAND MAINLY IMPACTING AN AREA FROM LOOKOUT PASS TO
SWAN VALLEY, BUT THIS BAND COULD SHIFT TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH. THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS BAND WILL BE THE DECIDING FACTOR ON WHICH
MOUNTAIN PASSES COULD HAVE SOME SLUSHY CONDITIONS BY MONDAY
MORNING.
A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE AREA SHOULD ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING AT LEAST
SOME LIGHT SNOW FALL. THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN HOW THE
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARDS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY A
LINGERING SHOWERS, INSTEAD OF WRAP AROUND STEADY PRECIPITATION
LASTING FOR 24-48 HOURS. AT THIS TIME, THE VALLEYS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO RECEIVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THE SNOW. WHILE
THE MOUNTAIN PASSES COULD EXPERIENCE A STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 4
TO 9 INCHES CAUSING MODERATE TRAVEL IMPACTS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO SLIDE OVER THE REGION
BY THE WEEKEND BRINGING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.
AVIATION
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IMPACTING MOST TERMINALS WITH
A LESSER EXTENT AT KGPI. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION TO
STEADY PRECIPITATION OVER NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO TONIGHT WITH A BAND
EXTENDING INTO WESTERN MONTANA. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING
THIS BAND DEVELOPING BETWEEN KMSO AND KGPI TONIGHT. AREAS UNDER
THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPECTED LOWERED CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT. THE FEATURE MOVES OUT OF
THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON LEAVING BEHIND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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