280
FXUS65 KMSO 141852
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1252 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY: PASS LEVEL SNOW, POTENTIAL MINOR TRAVEL
IMPACTS.
- A POTENT COLD FRONT DROPS SNOW LEVELS TO THE VALLEY FLOORS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SUDDEN
SNOW SQUALLS IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND TRAVEL IMPACTS OVER
MOUNTAIN PASSES.
- A BRIEF WARMUP WITH DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND BEFORE ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS.
EXPECT BREEZY WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH.
TONIGHT, A STRONGER LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A PLUME OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL FOCUS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO AND NORTHWEST
MONTANA. SNOW LEVELS WILL HOVER AROUND 4,500 FEET, SO IMPACTS
WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKOUT, MARIAS, AND
LOLO PASSES HAVE A HIGH CHANCE (60 TO 80 PERCENT) OF SEEING A FEW
INCHES OF NEW SNOW, THOUGH ROADS JUST BELOW THE PASSES SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY WET.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY,
CONTINUING PASS LEVEL SNOW AND VALLEY SHOWERS. BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE A BURST OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION AND RAPIDLY FALLING SNOW LEVELS, DROPPING ALL THE
WAY TO THE VALLEY FLOORS. BE ON ALERT FOR SUDDEN SNOW SQUALLS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHWEST MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY EVENING,
WHICH CAN CAUSE RAPIDLY DROPPING VISIBILITY AND SLICK ROADS. THIS
WILL CREATE MODERATE TRAVEL IMPACTS ON MOUNTAIN PASSES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH SNOW WILL
ULTIMATELY ACCUMULATE IN THE VALLEYS. CURRENT MODELS SHOW THE BULK
OF THE MOISTURE ARRIVING DIRECTLY ALONG THE COLD FRONT, WHICH
TYPICALLY LIMITS VALLEY ACCUMULATIONS, BUT HEAVY BURSTS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE. FURTHERMORE, THERE IS A 25 PERCENT CHANCE THAT A WEAK,
CLOSED LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
IF THIS HAPPENS, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THAT AREA WOULD BE
ENHANCED, LEADING TO HIGHER SNOW TOTALS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
FINALLY, WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS
WEDNESDAY EVENING, AS THEIR EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY ARE HIGHLY
LOCALIZED AND COMPLEX TO PIN DOWN IN ADVANCE.
SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION, AND LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER
OFF THROUGH FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING A BRIEF BUT WELCOME RETURN TO WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER. HOWEVER, THIS BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, AS
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL TODAY, THOUGH
SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST MONTANA. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TERMINAL SITES THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL RELAX IN MOST VALLEYS SOUTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR BY
SUNSET BUT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN NORTHWEST MONTANA.
PRECIPITATION (RAIN AND HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW) WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
ALONG THE IDAHO/MONTANA BORDER BY EARLY EVENING AND SPREAD
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION IN
MANY WESTERN MONTANA VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 4,000 TO
5,000 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY
FOR BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION...POTOMAC/SEELEY LAKE REGION.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT
THURSDAY FOR LOWER CLARK FORK REGION...WEST GLACIER REGION.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY
FOR BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS.
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MDT /5 PM PDT/ WEDNESDAY TO 9
AM MDT /8 AM PDT/ THURSDAY FOR EASTERN LEMHI COUNTY...
NORTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN CLEARWATER
MOUNTAINS...WESTERN LEMHI COUNTY.
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