771
FXUS65 KMSO 160911
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
311 AM MDT THU APR 16 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TODAY AND EARLY FRIDAY.
- A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WILL SET UP WARM
TEMPERATURES TO START NEXT WEEK.
- THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AROUND MID-NEXT WEEK.
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY CAUSING INSTABILITY AND SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL REACH THE
VALLEY FLOORS IN MANY PLACES IN WESTERN MONTANA, BUT DUE TO THE
RECENT WARMTH AND SOLAR HEATING THE GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARM ENOUGH TO MELT IT BEFORE IT CAN ACCUMULATE ON THE GROUND.
HOWEVER, SOME ELEVATED SURFACES LIKE PICNIC TABLES, GRASS, OR
FENCES MAY ACCUMULATE SOME SNOW.
LATE FRIDAY A RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION, SETTING UP
FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL IDAHO WILL BE UP
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S WITH WESTERN MONTANA VALLEYS INTO THE
MID 70S BY MONDAY.
ENSEMBLES GENERALLY AGREE ON AN ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNING WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AGAIN, THIS WILL BE A SHOWERY PATTERN
DUE TO A TROUGH OR A LOW MOVING THROUGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION
A CLOSED LOW MIGRATING OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL
CAUSE SOME CONVECTION. THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND GOOD SOLAR HEATING. BUT LIMITED PRECIPITABLE
WATER AND AN OVERALL COLD ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH AND
COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS. DUE TO THE COLD AIR MASS, SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SNOW SHOWERS EVEN IN THE VALLEYS. HOWEVER, DUE TO
THE SOLAR RADIATION AND RECENT WARMTH, WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVENT ACCUMULATION AT AREA TERMINALS.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR
BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS...BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION...
LOWER CLARK FORK REGION...POTOMAC/SEELEY LAKE REGION...WEST
GLACIER REGION.
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT /8 AM PDT/ THIS MORNING
FOR EASTERN LEMHI COUNTY...NORTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS...
SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS...WESTERN LEMHI COUNTY.
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