407
FXUS65 KMSO 261800
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1200 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- FROST POSSIBLE IN THE DAYS THROUGH MID WEEK
- SLOW WARMING TREND WITH LINGERING SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP THE
REGION UNDER COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS. AREAS THAT ARE UNDER
CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT SHOULD ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING WITH HIGH ELEVATION LOCATIONS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO
DROP INTO THE LOW 20 DEGREES EACH MORNING. VERY SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW CAUSING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE, THEN
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY CAUSING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING
TREND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGE BY FRIDAY. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A VERY
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THAT COULD CAUSE
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA.
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A LARGER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE WESTERN UNITED STATES, BUT THE PATH OF THE
SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS IS FOR
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH HIGH SNOW LEVELS, SO IMPACTS FROM
SNOW WILL BE FAIRLY MINIMAL.
AVIATION
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AIRSPACE, WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FUELING
SCATTERED SHOWERS. RADAR IMAGERY SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON, SHOWS
ACTIVITY FOCUSING ALONG THE DIVIDE AND THE IDAHO/MONTANA BORDER.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. TERRAIN
OBSCURATION AND ICING WILL BE PRIMARY CONCERNS, WITH RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS LEADING TO BRIEF VISIBILITY AND CEILING REDUCTIONS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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