426
FXUS65 KMSO 061905
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
105 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR
NORTHWEST MONTANA
- WARMING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
- A WEAK DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY CAUSING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL OF LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR GLACIER NP
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY SETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN FOR MOST OF TODAY. HOWEVER, A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING
IN FROM CANADA WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A HIGHER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 5PM NEAR THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE BORDER, POTENTIALLY REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS MISSOULA.
BY 9:00 PM, THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT PRIMARILY TOWARD NORTHWEST
MONTANA, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOCUSED NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER. A FEW OF THESE EVENING STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG,
CARRYING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND SMALL HAIL.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
ON THURSDAY, SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE,
INCLUDING THE GLACIER NATIONAL PARK AREA, WHILE THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL EXPERIENCE CLEARING SKIES. ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WITH THIS
PASSING SYSTEM, A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
PRECIPITATION REACHES THE GROUND, SATURDAY WILL FEATURE COOLER,
NEAR-NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES.
BY SUNDAY, CONFIDENCE IS EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH THAT STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL USHER IN
A PERIOD OF COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS AND A NOTICEABLE WARMING
TREND ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO. EXPECT THIS
WARM AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE AIRSPACE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST. HOWEVER, AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER
06/2300Z AS A CANADIAN DISTURBANCE INITIATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE IDAHO BORDER, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
KMSO TERMINAL AREA. BY 07/0300Z, THE CONVECTIVE FOCUS WILL SHIFT
NORTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST MONTANA, BRINGING THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR TSRA TO THE KGPI VICINITY NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER. THE PRIMARY AVIATION HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM CORES THIS EVENING WILL INCLUDE ERRATIC GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 30 KTS, LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL, AND TEMPORARY MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITY AND LOWERING CEILINGS IN
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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