780
FXUS65 KMSO 080806
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
206 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- A STRONG RIDGE BRINGS DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 70S AND 80S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES NEXT TUESDAY (MAY 12), WITH HIGHS
RUNNING 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN STRONG AGREEMENT (>90% CONFIDENCE) FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TODAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN IS BEING DRIVEN
BY A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON
SUNDAY AND TUESDAY AS WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE,
ALLOWING FOR DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION. TUESDAY NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE
SPRING THUS FAR FOR MANY LOCATIONS IF THE FORECAST HOLDS, WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MID-90S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
IDAHO AND LOW-MID-80S ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA VALLEYS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS A HIGH OF 90F FOR SALMON, COMPARED TO THE HISTORICAL
DAILY RECORD HIGH OF 89F, SET IN 1993 (STATION PERIOD OF RECORD
1967-PRESENT). FURTHER TO THE NORTH, MISSOULA HAS A HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST OF 87F, WITH THE CURRENT RECORD HIGH OF 91F
ALSO SET IN 1993.
JUMPING BACK TO THE NEAR-TERM, A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE, ALONG WITH WEST-NORTHWEST VALLEY WIND
BREEZES OF 15-25 MPH. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED, WITH
ACTIVITY FOCUSED ALONG THE DIVIDE IN NORTHWEST MONTANA.
LOOKING INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST, CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE TYPICALLY STRUGGLES
WITH THE RIDGE BREAKDOWN TIMING, AND THIS EVENT IS NO DIFFERENT.
ENSEMBLE MODEL CLUSTER ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A 25% CHANCE FOR THE
RIDGE TO BREAKDOWN ON WEDNESDAY, WITH PROBABILITIES INCREASING TO
50% BY THURSDAY. THE REMAINING MEMBERS SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK SO STAY TUNED!
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY THIS AFTERNOON, LEADING TO AN INCREASE
IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, WITH CLOUD BASES GENERALLY BETWEEN
10,000-15,000 FT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 10-15KTS
WITH PERIODIC GUSTS NEAR 20KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE
AFTER 09/0100Z, WITH VALLEY AREAS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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