947
FXUS65 KMSO 082038
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
238 PM MDT FRI MAY 8 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWEST
MONTANA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY NEAR AND ALONG THE
DIVIDE.
- RAPIDLY BUILDING HEAT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD 70S AND 80S THIS
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY REACHING CLOSE TO 90
DEGREES BY TUESDAY.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD WATER CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD, AS
RIVER TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S CAN TRIGGER COLD-WATER
SHOCK.
THE SHORT-TERM FOCUS REMAINS ON A WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
TRACKING EASTWARD. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST MONTANA. AFTERNOON SURFACE
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE.
THE PRIMARY HEADLINE IS THE SIGNIFICANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AMPLIFYING OVER THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY, UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TO MIDDLE-PART OF NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY
REMAINS ON TRACK TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE SEASON SO FAR.
CURRENT FORECASTS OF TEMPERATURES NEARING 90 DEGREES (25% CHANCE
FOR MISSOULA AND BITTERROOT VALLEYS, 70% CHANCE FOR LOWER RIVER
VALLEYS OF IDAHO) WOULD BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
DESPITE THE "SUMMER" FEEL OF THE AIR, LOCAL WATERWAYS REMAIN
EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS. RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING FAST AND HIGH
WITH NEAR-PEAK MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT ONGOING. DEBRIS AND HAZARDS MAY
BE OBSCURED OR HIDDEN UNDER THE WATER'S SURFACE. WATER
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 40 AND 50 DEGREES CAN PARALYZE MUSCLES AND
TRIGGER INVOLUNTARY GASPING (COLD-WATER SHOCK) IN MINUTES EVEN FOR
STRONG AND EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS. RECREATIONISTS ARE URGED TO WEAR
LIFE JACKETS AND STAY BACK FROM SLIPPERY, UNSTABLE BANKS.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE COULD BEGIN
TO BREAK DOWN. THERE IS CURRENTLY A ROUGHLY 50% CHANCE OF A
TRANSITION TO A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE ACTIVE PATTERN BY LATE
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VFR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGHOUT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 08/2100Z AND 09/0200Z WHICH
COULD LEAD TO BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND ERRATIC GUSTS.
TYPICAL AFTERNOON WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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