242
FXUS65 KMSO 111728
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1128 AM MDT MON MAY 11 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY, REACHING THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- SPRING THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY; MAIN HAZARDS WILL
BE LIGHTNING AND ERRATIC/GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
- THIS WEEKEND COULD BE A SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM AFTER A WARM START
TO THE WEEK. A COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED, AND EVEN A CHANCE FOR SOME
MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL!
NEAR-RECORD HEAT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS THE REGION. IN
WESTERN MONTANA, THE NORTHWEST VALLEYS—INCLUDING ST. REGIS, LIBBY,
AND TROUT CREEK—HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF REACHING 90 DEGREES. IN
IDAHO, LOWER VALLEYS WILL REACH THE 90S. SALMON COULD REACH 90
DEGREES ON TUESDAY, WHICH WOULD BREAK THE DAILY RECORD OF 89 SET
IN 1993. WHILE THE AIR WILL FEEL LIKE SUMMER, RECREATIONALISTS ARE
REMINDED THAT MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT HAS LEFT RIVERS DANGEROUSLY COLD
AND FAST-MOVING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND LOWERS, AS WEATHER
MODELS DISAGREE ON THE PATH OF THE INCOMING STORM SYSTEM. DESPITE
THESE DIFFERENCES, THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY BE
MUCH COOLER ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO, WESTERN MONTANA WILL SEE A
SHARP CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES AND WINDS. CURRENTLY, THE FORECAST
KEEPS TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S FROM LIBBY SOUTH AND EASTWARD.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH STRONG WINDS COULD ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM TRENDS FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN LEANING TOWARD A MORE
ACTIVE DAY, ESPECIALLY IN WEST-CENTRAL MONTANA. THERE IS A 15%
CHANCE THAT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHWAY
12, HIGHWAY 200, AND I-90 CORRIDORS. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE TWO PRIMARY THREATS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND, A MUCH COOLER PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD
AS COLD AIR FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE 60S ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO FALL.
THERE IS A 60% CHANCE THEY WILL DROP TO AROUND 4,500 FEET,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA. THOSE TRAVELING INTO THE
BACKCOUNTRY SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WINTER-LIKE CONDITIONS. THIS
COOL, UNSETTLED PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE REGION. EXPECT BREEZY WEST WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 15–25
KNOTS, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. UNSEASONABLE
HEAT WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-80S TO LOW 90S
THROUGH MID-WEEK.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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