396
FXUS65 KMSO 230804
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
204 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO SOUTHWEST MONTANA ON MONDAY, THE REST
OF WESTERN MONTANA ON TUESDAY.
- AN UPPER LOW ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY CAUSING A COOL
DOWN AND ACTIVE, WET WEATHER THE REST OF THE WEEK.
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND UNDER A BROAD, WEAK RIDGE WILL LAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOUT 15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE BY MONDAY.
ENSEMBLES AGREE VERY WELL ON A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO
THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A DROP IN
TEMPERATURES TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE MOST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
THAT THE REGION WILL RECEIVE. ON THE LOW END (10TH PERCENTILE) THE
MOUNTAINS OF WEST-CENTRAL MONTANA PICK UP AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH WITH NORTHWEST MONTANA BEING DRY AND GENERALLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ELSEWHERE. ON THE HIGH END (90TH
PERCENTILE) AREAS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN NORTHWEST
MONTANA PICK UP OVER 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER 48 HOURS. EXACTLY HOW
IT PLAYS OUT WILL DEPEND ON SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE
LOW AS IT CROSSES THE REGION.
AFTER THE SHARP COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
WARMER THE REST OF NEXT WEEK WITH ACTIVE WEATHER AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW STUMBLES OUT OF THE REGION.
AVIATION
WESTERN MONTANA AND CENTRAL IDAHO WILL MAINLY BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK, BROAD RIDGE TODAY. AS A RESULT, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME AFTERNOON FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
CLOUDS BREEZY WEST WINDS. MILD CONDITIONS UNDER THIS RIDGE ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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