397
FXUS65 KMSO 240920
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
320 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH THE TODAY AND TOMORROW.
- THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO WESTERN MONTANA TOMORROW AND TUESDAY.
- AN UPPER LOW ARRIVES TOMORROW INTO TUESDAY CAUSING A COOL DOWN
AND ACTIVE, WET WEATHER THE REST OF THE WEEK.
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND UNDER A BROAD, WEAK RIDGE WILL LAST
THROUGH TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE BY TOMORROW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED EARLIER IN THEIR TIMING
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR TOMORROW NIGHT. AS A
RESULT MORE LOCATIONS IN WESTERN MONTANA WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD ACROSS
CENTRAL IDAHO AND EVEN INTO NORTHWEST MONTANA BY TOMORROW EVENING.
ENSEMBLES AGREE VERY WELL ON A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO
THE REGION LATE TOMORROW INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A DROP IN
TEMPERATURES TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ON TUESDAY. THE MOST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS THAT THE REGION WILL RECEIVE. THESE VALUES ARE HEAVILY
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES AND EXACTLY WHAT
TRACK IT TAKES, THOUGH TRENDS IN THE ENSEMBLES ARE FAVORING MORE
RAIN FOR WESTERN MONTANA AND PARTICULARLY SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
AFTER THE SHARP COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
WARMER THE REST OF NEXT WEEK WITH ACTIVE WEATHER AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW STUMBLES OUT OF THE REGION. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS ALSO
BEEN TRENDING WETTER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS MORE MEMBERS ARE
FAVORING A SLOWER TRANSITION OUT OF THE REGION.
AVIATION
A BROAD AND WEAK RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. SOME RIVER FOG
IS EXPECTED NEAR TERMINALS KMSO AND KGPI. THERE IS ABOUT A 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE FOG WILL IMPACT TERMINAL KGPI THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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