354
FXUS65 KMSO 050645
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1245 AM MDT FRI JUN 5 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARM AND DRY TODAY, BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS.
- SHOWERS, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
- INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK WITH A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL BRING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS, ACCOMPANIED BY
AFTERNOON BREEZES GUSTING UP TO 20-25 MPH. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN PLEASANT FOR MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA TODAY
AND SATURDAY. EXTREME CAUTION SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH ANY OPEN
FLAMES.
ON SATURDAY, A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. DYNAMIC FORCING AND INSTABILITY REMAIN WEAK, KEEPING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOCALIZED AND PRIMARILY FOCUSED
ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL COOL BY ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COMPARED
TO TODAY, WITH WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH RETURNING. AS
THE CORE OF THE TROUGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY, SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD; HOWEVER, TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY UNDER 0.20 INCHES. SNOW
LEVELS DO DROP TO AROUND 5500 FEET ON SUNDAY WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90.
LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS, THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR VALLEY FROST
WILL BE MONDAY MORNING AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS CALM BEHIND THE
EXITING SYSTEM. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE
MID-TO-UPPER 30S ACROSS MANY LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS OF WESTERN
MONTANA AND THE HIGHER VALLEYS OF NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO. SUNDAY
MORNING WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED, BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
MAY LIMIT FROST DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY FROM I-90 SOUTHWARD.
REGARDLESS, GARDENERS SHOULD PREPARE TO PROTECT SENSITIVE
VEGETATION.
TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY:
ATTENTION TURNS TO A LARGE, CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT ENSEMBLE
CLUSTERS SHOW SETTLING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. BY MID-TO- LATE NEXT
WEEK. WHILE NOTABLE VARIANCE REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT DEPTH,
TRACK, AND SPEED OF THIS TROUGH, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A
SIGNIFICANT, WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT. THE NATIONAL BLEND OF
MODELS (NBM) CURRENTLY INDICATES A 60-80% PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXCEEDING 0.50 INCHES ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TO THE REGION, SO PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC
TROUGH WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH- AND MID-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER TODAY. AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THIS
AFTERNOON, WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION,
PRODUCING SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS AT
MOST TERMINAL SITES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, WITH VFR
CEILINGS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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