184
FXUS65 KMSO 070705
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
105 AM MDT SUN JUN 7 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCATTERED SHOWERS, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TODAY.
- FROST POTENTIAL IN NORTHWEST MONTANA THIS MORNING, BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY MORNING.
- COOL AND WET CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY... A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-90. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO
5,000-6,000 FEET, RESULTING IN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF LIGHT ACCUMULATION
IN THE BACKCOUNTRY. PARTIAL CLEARING NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
WILL ALSO INTRODUCE LOCALIZED EARLY-MORNING FROST CONCERNS.
BY THIS AFTERNOON, SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH, THUS
IT WILL FEEL COOL FOR JUNE. AS SKIES CLEAR AND DRIER AIR SETTLES
IN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, WIDESPREAD FROST WILL THREATEN
SENSITIVE VEGETATION IN THE VALLEYS OF WESTERN MONTANA AND THE
HIGH VALLEYS OF NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO. ADDITIONAL FROST ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. MONDAY WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CALM WEATHER BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AN INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY WILL INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS ALL
OF WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MORE PROGRESSIVE (FASTER-MOVING)
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS INDICATED.
A HIGH PROBABILITY (70% TO 90%) REMAINS FOR AT LEAST 0.50 INCHES
OF RAIN ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN NORTHWEST MONTANA AND
NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO, WITH LIGHTER TOTALS EXPECTED IN THE BROADER
VALLEYS OF WESTERN MONTANA. THERE IS A LOWER (10% TO 20%) CHANCE
OF HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALING 1 TO 2 INCHES OR MORE ALONG THE
DIVIDE. IF THIS WETTER SCENARIO DEVELOPS, LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD
BECOME A CONCERN FOR RECENTLY SATURATED AREAS, INCLUDING THE
MISSION MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING VALLEYS.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, A GENERAL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT THE PATTERN LEAVES OPEN DAILY SHOWER
CHANCES.
AVIATION
FRONTAL LIFT AND JET DYNAMICS WILL DRIVE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
THIS MORNING, PRIMARILY FROM I-90 SOUTHWARD. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES, WITH FREQUENT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.
FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 5,000-6,000 FEET MSL, THOUGH
BACKCOUNTRY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. BEHIND THE
FRONT, A COLD CORE ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL INDUCE INSTABILITY,
GENERATING SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
AROUND SUNSET. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF MID-TO-LATE EVENING, WITH
SKIES CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR KOOTENAI/CABINET
REGION.
ID...NONE.
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