621
FXUS65 KMSO 082003
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
203 PM MDT MON JUN 8 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- COOL, BREEZY AND WET CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- ANOTHER FROST POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR
AN INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING, RAIN
FALLING FROM THESE CLOUDS MAY INITIALLY EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING
THE SURFACE, A PROCESS THAT CAN PRODUCE SUDDEN, GUSTY WINDS OF 30
TO 40 MPH. RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE GROUND AND BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO AND
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN NORTHWEST MONTANA, WHERE A HALF-
INCH OR MORE OF RAIN IS HIGHLY LIKELY (80 TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE).
THE BROADER WESTERN MONTANA VALLEYS WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHTER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO THE RAIN-SHADOWING EFFECT OF THE
SURROUNDING MOUNTAINS, THOUGH LOCALIZED AREAS COULD SEE HEAVIER
AMOUNTS UNDER STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN, BREEZY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AND
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE RAW, COLD CONDITIONS
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BACKCOUNTRY RECREATIONISTS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR WINTER-LIKE WEATHER, AS SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP TO ROUGHLY 6,000 TO 6,500 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. IN
ADDITION, AREA LAKES WILL SEE CHOPPY CONDITIONS.
FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A DRIER TREND FOR THURSDAY. HOWEVER,
CLEARING SKIES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FROSTY CONDITIONS
THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. WHILE THE EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY OF
INDIVIDUAL WEATHER DISTURBANCES REMAIN UNCERTAIN, A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPPING FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES. PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL ALSO PERSIST,
PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA, WITH RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO.
AVIATION
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. A
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND SOUTHERLY
GUSTS 15 TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGPI, KHRF, AND KBTM. AFTER
09/0900Z LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AT AREA TERMINALS. WHILE
VISIBILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR OR HIGHER, LOWERED CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED FROM DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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