593
FXUS65 KMSO 090728
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
128 AM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- COOL, BREEZY AND WET CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- ANOTHER FROST POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THIS MORNING, WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS THE HIGHEST
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES (30–40%) EXTENDING FROM LEMHI COUNTY
INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA. GENERAL WIND GUSTS OF 20–30 MPH WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS THE REGION TODAY; HOWEVER, LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH MAY ACCOMPANY HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A
NOTABLY COOLER DAY, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS DROPPING 10–15 DEGREES
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD REMAIN
WEATHER-AWARE, AND BOATERS SHOULD MONITOR AREA LAKES FOR CHOPPY
CONDITIONS.
PERIODIC SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOW
LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO 5,000–6,000 FEET BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, POTENTIALLY BRINGING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF WET SNOW TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. PERSISTENT BREEZY WINDS COMBINED WITH COOL,
SHOWERY WEATHER WILL YIELD RAW CONDITIONS FOR BACKCOUNTRY
RECREATION. AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR THURSDAY MORNING, LOCALIZED
VALLEY FROST IS POSSIBLE. THE EXTENT OF THE FROST WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF CLEARING SKIES; CURRENTLY, THE HIGHEST
FROST PROBABILITIES ARE CONCENTRATED SOUTH OF I-90. CURRENT FROST
PROBABILITIES ARE 25-50% FOR THE BITTERROOT VALLEY AND SALMON,
WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR VALLEYS ALONG THE DIVIDE.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:LOOKING AHEAD TO FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS UNCERTAIN REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES, A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPPING FROM THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN NEAR-
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES WILL PERSIST,
PRIMARILY FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA, WHILE RELATIVELY DRIER
CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD OVER NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO.
AVIATION
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FROM I-90 SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS THE HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITIES, AT 30–40%, EXTENDING FROM LEMHI COUNTY INTO
SOUTHWEST MONTANA INCLUDING KSMN AND KBTM. WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS
WILL BE COMMON TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS ACCOMPANYING HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE TODAY BUT
EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR DURING BRIEF PRECIPITATION
EPISODES ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. PERIODIC SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN VALLEYS
AFTER SUNSET BUT REMAIN GUSTY ON RIDGETOPS, THEN MIX BACK DOWN
INTO VALLEYS ON WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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