065
FXUS65 KMSO 021808
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1208 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM RETURN TO LEMHI COUNTY, ID AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA FRIDAY, AND WILL BE A FREQUENT OCCURRENCE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN NW MT ON SATURDAY.
THIS AFTERNOON THE REGION WILL HAVE A BREAK FROM THUNDERSTORMS,
BUT THEY RETURN TOMORROW. WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND A LACK
OF STRONG WIND SHEAR, WE DO NOT EXPECT STORMS TO BE SEVERE. AS
USUAL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM, WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. DUE TO A DRIER AIR MASS MOVING IN
FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY (SATURDAY), THERE WILL BE LESS STORMS THEN
BUT THEY'LL PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WILL
CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN UP, RESULTING IN BREEZY
CONDITIONS, MAINLY IN NORTHWEST MONTANA, ON INDEPENDENCE DAY
(SATURDAY). HIGH IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE
UPPER 20S WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING GUSTS IN THE LOW TO
MID-20S. ADDITIONALLY, IT WILL GET MUCH DRIER ON SATURDAY WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE LOW 20S AND TEENS.
IN THE LONG TERM, THE BROAD TROUGH OVER SOUTHWESTERN CANADA WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ABOUT A WEEK, CAUSING ONLY A GRADUAL WARMING
AND DRYING TREND WITH FREQUENT THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA
AND LEMHI COUNTY, ID. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. LONG TERM ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRYING TO
SHOW A SHARP RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OR THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IN THE LONG TERM, BUT IT KEEPS GETTING DELAYED.
SO WHILE IT DOES CONTINUE TO WARM, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MILD
FOR THE SEASON.
AVIATION
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AS THE REGION GETS A BREAK
FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE SOME CONVECTION TODAY, BUT
WE EXPECT IT TO PEAK WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES,
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. TOMORROW, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN MAINLY FOR LEMHI COUNTY, ID AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA AFFECTING TERMINALS KSMN AND KBTM.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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