130
FXUS65 KMSO 031806
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1206 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LEMHI COUNTY, ID AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA
TODAY.
- BREEZY AND WARM FOURTH OF JULY: CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON AREA
LAKES. WINDS CALMING SKIES CLEARING FOR EVENING.
- LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.
A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WILL
TRIGGER ISOLATED TERRAIN-INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHWEST
MONTANA, LEMHI COUNTY, AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. STORMS WILL BE
PULSE-LIKE AND DISORGANIZED, PRESENTING MINIMAL THREAT OUTSIDE OF
LOCALIZED BRIEF RAIN AND ERRATIC SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
ON SATURDAY (JULY 4TH), A STRONGER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL HELP TO FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVERHEAD AND INCREASE WESTERLY WINDS. EXPECT AFTERNOON SURFACE
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AND SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE
WHICH WILL CAUSE CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES. CALMER WIND
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE
HOLIDAY'S EVENING HOURS.
WARM AND MOSTLY STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE REGION
ON SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE CREEPING IN FROM THE SOUTH
WILL KEEP ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN PLAY FOR
LEMHI COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE ARRIVES HEADING INTO MONDAY
AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A ROBUST SURGE OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, PUSHING PWAT
VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 1.0 INCHES. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TRACKING
THROUGH THIS ELEVATED PWAT ENVIRONMENT WILL INTERACT WITH HOT
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND SUBSEQUENT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
HELPING TO TRIGGER MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN
THE DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE, THESE STORMS WILL BE HIGHLY EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS. OUTSIDE
OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY'S CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL, THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS WARM AND RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL ASIDE FROM THE NEAR-
DAILY CHANCES FOR POP UP SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER IN
SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY. A WEAK
PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS, WITH KBTM POSSIBLY IMPACTED.
OTHERWISE, DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS WILL PREVAIL WITH SPEEDS
REMAINING UNDER 10 KNOTS.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page