811
FXUS65 KMSO 070856
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
256 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- BREEZY WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH ON WEDNESDAY COULD CAUSE CHOPPY
LAKES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
- WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SUMMER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY, THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY.
A FAST-MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS
TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS
BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH, WHICH WILL LIKELY CREATE CHOPPY AND
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES FOR SMALL CRAFTS. ADDITIONALLY,
SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL SEE A RENEWED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
A STRONG HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL
BEGIN EXPANDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY FRIDAY, USHERING IN
A DRIER AND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER WEATHER PATTERN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AND 90S ACROSS WESTERN
MONTANA, WHILE THE HELLS CANYON AND SALMON RIVER VALLEY REGIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO COULD SEE TEMPERATURES PEAK NEAR 102 DEGREES.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED, BUT A FEW ISOLATED, TERRAIN-DRIVEN
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL PEAK OVER THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY AS HOT AIR SURGES NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT BASIN. THERE IS
A HIGH PROBABILITY (70 TO 80 PERCENT OR GREATER) THAT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 100 TO 105 DEGREES IN THE LOWER VALLEYS OF
NORTH- CENTRAL IDAHO AND LEMHI COUNTY. GIVEN THESE EXTREME
TEMPERATURES, IT IS CRITICAL TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY: STAY
HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT COOLING BREAKS IF WORKING OUTDOORS DURING
THE AFTERNOON, AND NEVER LEAVE CHILDREN OR PETS UNATTENDED IN
VEHICLES.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO ENTER THE REGION BETWEEN
JULY 13TH AND 15TH. THIS WEATHER PATTERN SHIFT WOULD INCREASE THE
RISK FOR WIDESPREAD, RAIN-PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO.
AVIATION
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AIRSPACE TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE. THE PRIMARY AVIATION HAZARD WILL BE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOCUSED ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO
SOUTHWEST MONTANA, BRINGING LOCALIZED THREATS OF ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS AND BRIEF FLIGHT CATEGORY REDUCTIONS. A TRANSITIONING
WEATHER PATTERN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL INTRODUCE
WIDESPREAD BREEZY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND HIGHER GUSTS. THIS WILL LIKELY CREATE
PERIODS OF MECHANICAL TURBULENCE AND CROSSWIND IMPACTS AT REGIONAL
TERMINALS, ALONGSIDE A RENEWED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
AND ASSOCIATED AVIATION IMPACTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA ON
WEDNESDAY.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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