391
FXUS65 KMSO 191907
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
107 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY DUE TO HOT, DRY, AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST MONTANA.
- PERIODS OF SMOKE PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW STORM
CHANCES EXCEPT OVER LEMHI COUNTY.
- SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE, AIDED BY REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
ELIDA, WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR WET THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
- HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK, WITH HIGHS REACHING
90S UP TO 106 DEGREES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF IDAHO.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF SMOKE AND HAZE WILL PERSIST
TODAY, ORIGINATING FROM WILDFIRES IN OREGON AND WASHINGTON. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STORMS TODAY INTO MONDAY, MAINLY
CONFINED TO LEMHI COUNTY. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
RIDGE-LEVEL AND GAP EASTERLY BREEZES WILL DEVELOP. THESE EASTERLY
WINDS COULD HELP THIN OUT SOME OF THE CURRENT SMOKE, OR DRAW IN
NEW SMOKE FROM CANADA.
A NOTABLE PATTERN SHIFT BEGINS LATER MONDAY WITH A PUSH OF MONSOON
MOISTURE, PROBABLY MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS. ANY RAIN SHOWERS COULD OCCUR MORE OVER NORTHWEST
MONTANA INTO TUESDAY MORNING. RESIDUAL DRY AIR IN PLACE MAY
PREVENT TOO MUCH ACCUMULATION. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
MORE SUNSHINE COULD ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
APPROACHING ONE INCH, WHICH EQUATES TO AROUND 200% OF NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, ANY STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE GENERALLY RIGHT ON TOP OF US WHICH COULD WORK
AGAINST EXPERIENCING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH THE RISE OF
TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100 OR ABOVE, THOSE
WORKING OR RECREATING OUTDOORS SHOULD STAY HYDRATED, LIMIT
STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING, AND
SPEND TIME IN AIR CONDITIONED OR SHADED ENVIRONMENTS.
BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
EASTWARDS, ALLOWING FOR INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS, DRIER
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND A DOWN TICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
A DRIER AIR MASS HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION ELIMINATING
THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER,
IT HAS BROUGHT SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN OREGON AND WASHINGTON TO
THE REGION. MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE SMOKE WILL BE HAZE AS IT IS NOT
YET EXPECTED TO REACH CONCENTRATIONS HIGH ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACT VISIBILITY.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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