382
FXUS65 KMSO 300948
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
348 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2026
DISCUSSION
- HOT, DRY, AND SMOKY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH THE PERSISTENT
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY.
- ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: WEST-CENTRAL MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON.
- ELEVATED WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS: THIS WEEKEND, REGION-WIDE.
VARIABLE AIR QUALITY REMAINS THE PRIMARY SHORT-TERM IMPACT ACROSS
THE REGION AS A DRY, HOT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE SATURDAY, BREAKING DOWN THE DOMINANT
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. HISTORICALLY, SYNOPTIC RIDGE
BREAKDOWNS FOLLOWING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT, DRY WEATHER
SIGNIFICANTLY ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BRING SHOWERS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN
YESTERDAY, INCLUDING AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF MISSOULA. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS OF 40-50 MPH WILL BE COMMON NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WITH A MARGINAL CHANCE (5%) OF SEVERE GUSTS OVER 60 MPH. DRY
LIGHTNING IGNITIONS WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD. THE LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICT THE HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR LIGHTNING
EXISTS FROM SULA NORTH AND EAST TO MAXVILLE.
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK: WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY
AS THE MAIN PACIFIC TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY AND FOLLOW A DRY COLD-FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD WESTERLY WINDS SUSTAINED
AT 10 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS REACHING 25 TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE REGION.
THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS, PERSISTENT LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY,
AND DRY FUELS WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS,
ACCORDINGLY FIRE WEATHER WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. ADDITIONALLY,
WINDS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS, CHOPPY WATER ON AREA LAKES AND
RIVERS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. HOWEVER, POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL DROP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
RETURNING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
IF YOU'RE PLANNING ON CAMPING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT, BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE LOWS IN THE 30S! THERE IS A
50% CHANCE FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AT GEORGETOWN LAKE, MT AND
ELK CITY, IDAHO BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION
HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDES AND WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL PERSIST ACROSS REGIONAL
TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY.
A HIGH-BASED CONVECTIVE THREAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM STEVENSVILLE TO OVANDO. HIGH CLOUD
BASES (10,000-12,000 FT AGL) WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION MINIMAL AT
THE SURFACE, BUT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG, ERRATIC OUTFLOW GUSTS
UP TO 35-45 KT.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR BITTERROOT...EAST LOLO...FLATHEAD RESERVATION...
FLATHEAD/GLACIER PARK...KOOTENAI...WEST LOLO.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR DEERLODGE/WEST BEAVERHEAD...EAST BEAVERHEAD.
ID...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR CLEARWATER/NEZ PERCE...PALOUSE/HELLS CANYON.
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