860
FXUS65 KMSO 311019 CCA
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
412 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING SATURDAY EVENING RATHER THAN PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING.
- CHOPPY LAKES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- COOLER AND MORE PLEASANT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK, THOUGH HIGHER VALLEYS
COULD SEE LOWS IN THE 30S!
HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN THIS
WEEKEND AS A DRY PACIFIC TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. PRE-FRONTAL HEATING PEAKS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES IN VALLEYS SOUTH OF I-90 AND
IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA. LAKES INCLUDING FLATHEAD LAKE WILL BECOME
CHOPPY AS THE WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE
DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING CAUSING WINDS TO
INCREASE IN PLACES. THERE'S A 60-70% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 35 MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN BITTERROOT VALLEY.
IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON SUNDAY AS HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S
TO 80S IN THE VALLEYS. IT WILL BE BREEZY AND YOU MAY NEED TO
BRING A JACKET IN THE HIGHER REACHES OF GLACIER NATIONAL PARK
WHERE HIGHS MAY ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
IF YOU THINK THE 60S WERE CHILLY AT LOGAN PASS SUNDAY, ON MONDAY,
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE REGION...HIGHS MAY ONLY BE IN
THE UPPER 50S THERE. LOWER VALLEYS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S
AND 80S...5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ADDITIONALLY, CAMPERS AND RECREATORS SHOULD PREPARE FOR A COLD START
TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH ELEVATION VALLEYS MAY BE ABLE TO COOL
EFFICIENTLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD DROP INTO THE
30S ACROSS PLACES LIKE GEORGETOWN LAKE, SEELEY LAKE, BUTTE AND IN
THE GLACIER REGION.
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS DEPICT A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS IN HOW THE
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE NEXT WEEK. OVERALL, THE TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS BY MID-WEEK AND THERE IS LITTLE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP DENSITY ALTITUDES ELEVATED
ACROSS ALL REGIONAL TERMINALS. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
TO TRANSPORT WILDFIRE SMOKE ACROSS THE REGION, DEGRADING SLANT-
RANGE VISIBILITY AND KEEPING SURFACE VISIBILITIES NEAR 6SM. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER SATURDAY TO BRING GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS 20 TO 35 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR BITTERROOT...EAST LOLO...FLATHEAD RESERVATION...
FLATHEAD/GLACIER PARK...KOOTENAI...WEST LOLO.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR DEERLODGE/WEST BEAVERHEAD...EAST BEAVERHEAD.
ID...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR CLEARWATER/NEZ PERCE...PALOUSE/HELLS CANYON.
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