266
FXUS65 KMSO 010813
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
213 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ROCKIES, THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
- CHOPPY WAVE ACTIVITY ON AREA LAKES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BUT SUMMER WARMTH RETURNS THEREAFTER.
THE WARM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL PROVIDE ONE MORE DAY OF HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
ANTICIPATE MOST LOW ELEVATIONS WARMING INTO THE 90S AND 100S (F).
DESPITE THESE TEMPERATURES BEING IN LINE WITH RECENT TRENDS,
REMEMBER TO TAKE TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS, DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, SEEK
SHADE, AND NEVER LEAVING ANY PERSON OR PET IN A PARKED VEHICLE.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW, RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AT
MANY LOCATIONS. THOSE RECREATING ON AREA LAKES, PARTICULARLY
FLATHEAD LAKE, WILL EXPERIENCE CHOPPY WAVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE EVENING. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS EVENING.
A RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS IS PROJECTED TO RUSH OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN DURING
DAYTIME TOMORROW AND ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WAVE ACTIVITY ON AREA
LAKES. HOWEVER, THE COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY A BIT HIGHER COMPARED TO TODAY.
PREPARE FOR VERY EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES OVERNIGHT TOMORROW INTO MONDAY MORNING. HIGH MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS WILL COOL TO THE 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS BY MONDAY MORNING.
LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES GENERALLY AGREE THAT A WARM HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. MODELS ALSO TEND TO AGREE THAT THE NEXT ITERATION OF
OUR SUMMERTIME RIDGE WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
CURRENT RIDGE.
AVIATION
HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE WILL CONTINUE DUE TO HEAT TODAY. SMOKE FROM
AREA WILDFIRES AND INCREASING WEST WINDS ALOFT WILL BE THE MAIN
AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. TERRAIN WILL BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED DURING THIS TIME AS
WELL. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
BEGINNING AROUND 01/2000Z.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR
DEERLODGE/WEST BEAVERHEAD...EAST BEAVERHEAD.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT MDT
TONIGHT FOR BITTERROOT...EAST LOLO...FLATHEAD RESERVATION...
FLATHEAD/GLACIER PARK...KOOTENAI...WEST LOLO.
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PALOUSE/HELLS CANYON.
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