750
FXUS65 KMSO 030713
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
113 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMOKE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION.
- THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TODAY IN NORTHWEST MONTANA MAINLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 93 AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
- TODAY STARTS A WARMING TREND WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THE SMOKE SPREADING ACROSS MORE OF
WESTERN MONTANA AND CENTRAL IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING. KALISPELL
SHOULD SEE SOME RELIEF DUE TO A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT
PUSHING MUCH OF THE SMOKE FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER, WILDLAND FIRES
UPSTREAM IN WASHINGTON AND SOME LOCAL FIRES WILL KEEP PRODUCING
SMOKE EVEN THERE.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA THIS MORNING HAS A 20%
CHANCE OF CAUSING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN KALISPELL, AND THOSE
CHANCES INCREASE EAST OF HIGHWAY 93 AND PEAK AT 60% ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. OTHER THAN THAT, THE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION
REMAINS DRY.
RISING HEIGHTS WILL CAUSE WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY, EVEN THOUGH
THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. BY TOMORROW, THE FLOW WILL START
TO TURN ANTICYCLONIC, AND THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. UNFORTUNATELY THIS MEANS LOCALLY PRODUCED
SMOKE WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO VENTILATE OUT AS THE WEEK GOES ON.
ALSO, WITH THE DRY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION, THAT MEANS THE
HUMIDITY WILL STAY VERY LOW THIS WEEK, EXASPERATING THE DRYNESS
HELPING TO FUEL WILDLAND FIRE. FORTUNATELY, THERE DOESN'T SEEM TO
BE ANYMORE LIGHTNING ON THE WAY THIS WEEK. BASICALLY, THE REGION
HAS A WARM, DRY, SMOKY WEEK AHEAD.
AVIATION
SMOKE WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT TO AVIATION TODAY. ONCE
AGAIN MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SMOKE ARE POSSIBLE AT REGIONAL
TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY KGPI, KMSO, AND KHRF. AS A RIDGE SLOWLY
BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE REGION, WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE
AFFECTED BY THE LOCAL TERRAIN. AS A RESULT, SMOKE FROM LOCAL
WILDLAND FIRES WILL BE ABLE TO LINGER LONGER IN THE REGION BEFORE
GETTING VENTILATED OUT.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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