605
FXUS65 KMSO 150955
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
355 AM MDT SAT AUG 15 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- WARMING AND DRYING LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK UNDER A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH A VERY
SUBTLE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL HELP KICK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH
CENTRAL IDAHO AND THEN TRACK INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL, SMALL HAIL AND LIGHTNING.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY,
BUT ENOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY BUT THE
MODELS DIVERGE ON THE EXTENT OF THE AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT.
ON TUESDAY, A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST CAUSING THE FLOW TO BE FLATTENED OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THEN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION CAUSING A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND.
AVIATION
YESTERDAY'S PRECIPITATION HAS ALLOWED FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS
OF WESTERN MONTANA. KGPI AND KBTM HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF BEING
IMPACTED BY THE FOG/STRATUS THIS MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING CAUSING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD IMPACT AREA
TERMINALS AT TIMES.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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