623
FXUS65 KMSO 161005
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
405 AM MDT SUN AUG 16 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- WARMING AND DRYING LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK UNDER A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE.
EVEN THOUGH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS TRYING TO BUILD OVER THE
AREA TODAY A VERY SUBTLE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
KICKING OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
COVERAGE IS NOT TO BE AS EXTENSIVE AS YESTERDAY BUT THESE STORMS
WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL,
SMALL HAIL AND LIGHTNING.
THE LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON MONDAY WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY BEING FAIRLY LIMITED.
THEN ON TUESDAY, A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA. INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND WESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THIS FEATURE.
THEN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION CAUSING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA, WHILE
THE LOWER VALLEYS OF NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO REACHING THE CENTURY MARK
AGAIN. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
YESTERDAY'S PRECIPITATION HAS ONCE AGAIN ALLOWED FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING. KMSO
AND KHRF WILL HAVE THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THE FOG AND STRATUS
THIS MORNING. THE FOG AND STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY LATE
MORNING. THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. ALL TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED BY STORMS TODAY
WITH KMSO HAVING THE LOWEST POTENTIAL. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL AND LIGHTNING.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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