459
FXUS65 KMSO 181004
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
404 AM MDT TUE AUG 18 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.
- RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY CAUSING WARMING
AND DRYING.
- DISTURBANCE THIS WEEKEND CAUSING ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES
A DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST
MONTANA LATE THIS MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON MORE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA AND OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA. UNLIKE
PREVIOUS DAYS THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG AND GUSTY
OUTFLOWS WITH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. THE
DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO CAUSE INCREASE WESTERLY WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CREATE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL CAUSE A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY CLIMB TO
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THURSDAY AND LINGER
INTO FRIDAY.
THIS WEEKEND THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS IS FOR A DISTURBANCE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION CAUSING COOLER TEMPERATURES, INCREASED
WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTION. THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCE IS THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
A DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHWEST MONTANA LATE THIS MORNING WHICH COULD HAVE AN IMPACT AT
KGPI. THIS AFTERNOON MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. UNLIKE PREVIOUS
DAYS THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WHICH
COULD IMPACT AREA TERMINALS. KGPI, KBTM AND KSMN HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL TO BE IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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