516
FNUS75 KMSO 202103
FWSMSO
SPOT FORECAST FOR BLACK BEAR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
303 PM MDT THU AUG 20 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0700 MDT ON AUGUST 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY WILL REMAIN POOR ON THE MID SLOPES
AND UPPER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. TERRAIN DRIVEN DOWN-SLOPE
WINDS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
VERY SLIGHT (5%) CHANCE OF DRY THUNDERSTORM OVER THE AREAS ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, MORE LIKELY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE FIRE GROUND.
HIGH BASED SHOWERS START TO DEVELOP FROM SATURDAY MORNING, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS MORE LIKELY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUST WILL
BE THE MAIN RISK, WITH ERRATIC AND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH POSSIBLE
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OUTFLOW, EVEN THOUGH
ACTIVITIES ARE FAR AWAY FROM THE FIRE. CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN IS
LOW (<10%), UNLESS IT IS DIRECT HIT BY A THUNDERSTORM WHICH MAY BE
ABLE TO PRODUCE 0.1-0.2 INCH OF RAINFALL.
FRIDAY
* SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
* CWR (> 0.10 INCH)...0 PERCENT.
* CHANCE LIGHTNING....5 PERCENT.
* MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-91.
* MIN HUMIDITY........17-22 PERCENT.
* WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE 2-4 MPH IN THE MORNING TENDING WEST
5-8 MPH GUSTS TO 15-18 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
* MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 7000
FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
* MIXING WINDS........WEST 5 MPH.
* PRECIP AMOUNT.......0.00 INCHES.
FRIDAY NIGHT
* SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY.
* CWR (> 0.10 INCH)...0 PERCENT.
* CHANCE LIGHTNING....0 PERCENT.
* MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
* MAX HUMIDITY........BOTTOM: 54-59 PERCENT. TOP: 30-35% PERCENT.
* WIND (20 FT)........EAST 4-8 MPH GUSTS TO 15 MPH AT TIMES.
* MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500 FT AGL EARLY
IN THE EVENING.
* MIXING WINDS........EAST 10 MPH.
* PRECIP AMOUNT.......0.00 INCHES.
SATURDAY
* SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE MORNING. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM IN THE
AFTERNOON.
* CWR (> 0.10 INCH)...LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
* CHANCE LIGHTNING....30 PERCENT.
* MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-86.
* MIN HUMIDITY........24-29 PERCENT.
* WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE 2-5 MPH TENDING WEST 6-11 MPH AND
GUST TO 15-20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
* MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 5500
FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
* MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 10 MPH.
* PRECIP AMOUNT.......0.01-0.1 INCHES.
FORECASTER...BEC/JUNSMITHBOM
REQUESTED BY...ZACH LEE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2618935.18/MSO
.DELDT 08/20/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL EPAUL284@GMAIL.COM,CLINT.MENDENHALL@USDA.GOV,JACQUIE_PARKS@FIRENET.GOV,2026.NORTHFORKLOSTHORSE.PLANS@FIRENET.GOV,EPAUL@BLM.GOV,CHRIS_KRAMER@FIRENET.GOV
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