527
FXUS65 KMSO 280819
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
219 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND LEMHI
COUNTY THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
AND LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY STORM THREATS
- COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
- TEMPERATURES REBOUND EARLY NEXT WEEK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS TODAY. THE MOST FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND LEMHI COUNTY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
DEPICT A DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE CONDUCIVE TO GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF
ABOUT 40 MPH WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO FORM. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL WILL REMAIN
SCARCE. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THE PACIFIC LOW REMAINS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 15-20F BY SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER
INLAND. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES, CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS
(MORE THAN 0.10 IN) REACHES 80-90% FOR WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA, AS WELL AS LEMHI COUNTY. CONFIDENCE FOR WETTING RAIN
DECREASES ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA, AS PROBABILITIES FOR WETTING
RAINS DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND EARLY NEXT WEEK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS,
WHILE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE INDICATING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN FOR
KSMN AND KBTM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF GUSTY WINDS TO ABOUT 35-40 KNOTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL SEE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH WESTERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN STARTING ON
SATURDAY MORNING.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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