669
FXUS65 KMSO 290658
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1258 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
- TEMPERATURES COOLING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, RUNNING 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
- BRIEF WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COOL DOWN.
TODAY-SUNDAY:
BEGINNING THIS MORNING, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN CANADA
WILL ELONGATE SOUTHWARD AND CLOSE OFF OVER WASHINGTON STATE.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TODAY,
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. FRONTAL FORCING MAY SUPPORT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF ERRATIC WIND GUSTS, PRIMARILY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 12 IN WESTERN MONTANA.
* WETTING RAIN: PROBABILITIES REACH 50% TO 70% ACROSS WEST-
CENTRAL MONTANA, SOUTHWEST MONTANA, AND LEMHI COUNTY. CONFIDENCE
DECREASES FURTHER NORTH, WHERE PROBABILITIES DROP BELOW 30%
ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA.
* SUNDAY OUTLOOK: HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS WILL FALL INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ROUGHLY 10F BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
ALTHOUGH BREEZY WINDS WILL PERSIST, HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOW.
MONDAY-LATE NEXT WEEK:
BRIEF HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGING REBOUNDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BRINGING
A TEMPORARY RETURN TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. THIS WARM-UP WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER, AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER
UNSEASONABLY COLD AND POTENTIALLY WETTER LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM
ARRIVING MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
CLOSED LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO WASHINGTON. AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY
ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA SOUTH OF I-90 AND INTO LEMHI COUNTY. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA, COULD
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW GUSTS OF 30-40 KT.
OTHERWISE, A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE WIDESPREAD WESTERLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 15-25 KT ACROSS TERMINAL SITES THIS AFTERNOON,
DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT, BECOMING PREDOMINANTLY FOCUSED OVER
NORTHWEST MONTANA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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