647
FXUS65 KMSO 231819
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1219 PM MDT WED SEP 23 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOCALIZED SMOKE FROM
PRESCRIBED BURNS.
- COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRINGS STRONG WEST WINDS, CHOPPY
LAKES, AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
- CUTOFF LOW THIS WEEKEND BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN TO NORTHWEST
MONTANA AND A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW TO HIGH PEAKS OF GLACIER
NATIONAL PARK.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED,
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND OPERATIONAL IMPACTS
ARE UNLIKELY. INCREASED PRESCRIBED BURNING WILL LEAD TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED SMOKE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE BEGINS FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE US-93 CORRIDOR NEAR 6 PM
MDT, BRINGING STRONG WESTERLY WINDS. WIND GUSTS UP TOWARD 45 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA, PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON REGIONAL
LAKES AND ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR ONGOING WILDFIRES AND
PRESCRIBED BURNS.
BY THIS WEEKEND, A CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE REGION. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A NORTHEASTERLY TRACK,
FOCUSING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN
ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA AND CLEARWATER COUNTY, IDAHO. NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE LOW, SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 6,000 FEET.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ARE FORECAST FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF GLACIER NATIONAL PARK INCLUDING LOGAN PASS,
INTRODUCING WINTER- LIKE BACKCOUNTRY IMPACTS. SEASONABLY COOL AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION
VFR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AIRSPACE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ISOLATED, HIGH-BASED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
NEAR KBTM AND KSMN THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CONVECTIVE IMPACTS WILL
REMAIN MINIMAL. LOCALIZED PRESCRIBED BURNING MAY INTRODUCE MINOR
SLANT- RANGE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO SMOKE. LIGHT, TERRAIN-
DRIVEN WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE A STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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