531
FXUS65 KMSO 241839
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1239 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD FRONT TOMORROW WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SOME SHOWERS.
- CUTOFF LOW THIS WEEKEND BRINGS RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW
SHOWERS TO NORTHWEST MONTANA AND GLACIER NATIONAL PARK.
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW WILL MAINLY CAUSE
GUSTY WINDS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST MONTANA. A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MONTANA DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. WHILE PREDOMINANT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UNDER 30 MPH, AT LEAST IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS, MOUNTAIN WAVE WINDS ARE CAUSING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
STRONGER GUSTS. THE USUAL LOCATIONS WILL BE THE WINDIEST. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR GUSTS OVER 40 MPH IS ALONG A LINE FROM
HAPPY'S INN DOWN TO HOT SPRINGS WITH A 70-90 PERCENT CHANCE IN
THAT REGION. THERE'S ALSO ABOUT A 40 PERCENT CHANCE IN THE WESTERN
MISSION VALLEY AND ALONG THE WESTERN SHORES OF FLATHEAD LAKE. EVEN
IF THE GUST 40 MPH DO NOT OCCUR ALONG FLATHEAD LAKE, THE WINDS
WILL EASILY EXCEED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OF GUSTS OVER
30 MPH FOR THAT AREA, CAUSING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE.
FINALLY, THE AREA WEST OF KALISPELL NEAR KILA, WHICH IS ANOTHER
TYPICAL WINDY SPOT IN NORTHWEST MONTANA HAS A 70% CHANCE OF
GUSTING OVER 40 MPH. THESE CHANCES ALL COME FROM THE 24/12Z RUN OF
THE HREF, AN ENSEMBLE OF SHORT RANGE, HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS.
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS A CUTOFF LOW THAT
WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. IT BRINGS WITH IT A
CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE GLACIER PARK REGION. RECENT RUNS HAVE
TRENDED DOWN WITH ONLY A 10-15 PERCENT CHANCE OF 1 INCH OR MORE OF
SNOW AT LOGAN PASS. BUT DON'T BE FOOLED BY THE TRENDS, IT WILL
STILL BE A WET, COLD, AND WINDY DAY IN THE BACKCOUNTRY, SO IF
YOU'RE OUT THERE BE PREPARED FOR PRIME HYPOTHERMIA CONDITIONS.
IN THE LONGER TERM FOR MID NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND, THE ENSEMBLES
HAVE AN UNUSUAL AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT. OVERALL, THE TREND IS FOR
A BUILDING RIDGE, WHICH THEY ALL AGREE WELL ON BEYOND THE 7-DAY
FORECAST. HOWEVER, FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THERE'S
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLES ON HOW QUICKLY IT
WILL WARM UP. THAT BEING SAID, THERE'S ALSO NO REAL SIGNS OF ANY
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER DURING THAT PERIOD.
AVIATION
TAFS ARE PRETTY MILD THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW
WIND SHIFTS IN THEM. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT FOR
AVIATION IN THE REGION IS JUST BEYOND THE 24/18Z TAFS, SO AS THE
25/00Z TAFS COME OUT, START LOOKING FOR MORE WIND. WIND IS THE
MAIN IMPACT FROM A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW,
THOUGH SOME SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST MONTANA AND GENERAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR TOMORROW. LOWER CEILINGS AND SHOWERS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING LEVELS DROPPING TO AROUND 6,000FT
MSL AS THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTING THAT COLD FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE REGION.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
FLATHEAD/MISSION VALLEYS...KOOTENAI/CABINET REGION.
ID...NONE.
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