896
FXUS65 KMSO 130813
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
213 AM MDT TUE OCT 13 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD MORNINGS WITH VALLEY FOG FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH FRIDAY 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
- COLD TROUGH AND COLD FRONT COMING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY GOT FURTHER SOUTH.
A COLD, STABLE AIR MASS LEFT BEHIND THE LAST COLD FRONT TO COME
THROUGH WILL MAKE FOR SOME COOL MORNINGS AT HIGH ELEVATIONS AND IN
VALLEYS WHERE IT STAYS CLEAR FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT. A
HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED IN THOSE AREAS. BUT SATELLITE IS SHOWING
SOME OF THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND MELTING SNOW IS CAUSING LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS TO FORM, WHICH ARE KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS UP IN
MUCH OF WESTERN MONTANA AND THE CLEARWATER AND NEZ PERCE MOUNTAINS
OF CENTRAL IDAHO.
THE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. TODAY IS THE LAST DAY OF THE WEEK THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW AVERAGE, AND BY FRIDAY THEY'LL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL MAKE
IT A CHALLENGE TO VENTILATE OUT THE VALLEYS AND GET RID OF ALL THE
STRATUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK, SO MOST VALLEYS ARE ONLY EXPECTED
TO COOL INTO THE MID-20S TO LOW 30S MOST OF THE REST OF THE WEEK.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT COMING
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. ABOUT 60 PERCENT OF ENSEMBLES
SHOW AN OPEN WAVE AND THE REST OF THE MODELS SHOW A CUTOFF LOW
DIVING TO THE SOUTH. ALL THE MODELS ARE SHOWING MILD TO MODEST
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN THE PATTERNS
WOULD BE WHERE THE SNOW LEVEL ENDS UP, WITH THE 60 PERCENT
SOLUTION FAVORING LOWER SNOW LEVELS.
AVIATION
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT WITH A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER, MELTING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND STABLE
CONDITIONS DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS
THE REGION INCLUDING SATELLITE ARE FAVORING MORE STRATUS AND LOW
CEILINGS THAN FOG AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT WITH
MULTIPLE HOURS OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT REGIONAL
AIRPORTS.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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