950
FXUS65 KMSO 241946
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
146 PM MDT SAT OCT 24 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS LESS LIKELY TONIGHT IN WESTERN
MONTANA DUE TO DEVELOPING EASTERLY WINDS.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS
CAPABLE OF MOUNTAIN AND MOUNTAIN PASS SNOW.
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ERODE TODAY,
PARTICULARLY FOR THE VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL
MONTANA. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS GRADUAL ERODING OCCURRING FROM
EAST TO WEST, WITH MOST OF THIS LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO
BE DISSIPATED BY LATE AFTERNOON. WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL IDAHO WILL REMAIN UNDER A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
AN EASTERLY WIND GRADIENT SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS SHOULD KEEP ADDITIONAL FOG AND LOW
STRATUS FROM FORMING ONCE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
MONTANA. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
REACHING AS COLD AS PREVIOUS FORECASTS INDICATED. THE EAST WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, LIKELY
PEAKING SUNDAY EVENING WITH LOCALIZED AREAS SEEING GUSTS 25 TO 35
MPH, INCLUDING OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF FLATHEAD LAKE.
ON MONDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL IDAHO AND WESTERN
MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT, GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90, THEN SPREADING NORTHWARDS INTO
NORTHWEST MONTANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FORECAST MODELS INDICATE SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO BETWEEN 5000 TO
6000 FEET, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND MAY BRING PERIODS OF SLICK TRAVEL OVER MOUNTAIN
PASSES, ESPECIALLY IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
FORECAST MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER,
POTENTIALLY COLDER, LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE OVERALL DETAILS REMAIN MURKY,
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SNOW LEVEL TO LOWER FURTHER, ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHWEST MONTANA AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WHERE ITS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE PERIODS OF SNOW EVEN INTO VALLEY
LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND VALLEY FOG HAS BEEN STUBBORN
TO CLEAR TODAY ACROSS LOWER VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MONTANA. HOWEVER, CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FROM EAST TO WEST, AND LIKELY WILL BE FULLY ERODED BY
25/0000Z. THE THREAT FOR FOG AND LOW STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT LOOK
LESS LIKELY DUE TO AN ANTICIPATED EASTERLY WIND GRADIENT
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 25/0300Z AND 25/0900Z. AIRFIELDS SUCH AS KGPI
AND KMSO ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP FOG AND LOW
STRATUS AT BAY. HOWEVER, MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS SUCH AS KHRF MAY
SEE SOME LOCALIZED FOG DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY, LIKELY STRENGTHENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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