581
FGUS63 KMSR 231811
ESGRDW
MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOVE RED WING..MINNESOTA
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
110 PM CDT TUE APR 23 2024
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 04/29/2024 - 07/28/2024
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:PRAIRIE RIVER
TACM5 10.0 12.0 13.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ATKM5 13.0 15.0 18.0 13 49 <5 34 <5 7
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LGPM5 7.0 8.0 10.0 13 22 5 9 <5 <5
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FTRM5 10.5 12.5 26.0 13 40 <5 15 <5 <5
:SAUK RIVER
STCM5 6.0 7.0 9.0 5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
SCOM5 9.0 10.0 11.0 10 31 <5 15 <5 <5
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYM5 11.0 15.0 16.0 28 28 8 6 <5 <5
DELM5 16.5 17.5 18.5 21 13 11 10 8 8
:CROW RIVER
RKFM5 10.0 12.0 14.0 24 16 8 8 5 6
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AKAM5 12.0 14.0 17.0 6 15 <5 <5 <5 <5
:RUM RIVER
MCAM5 6.0 7.0 8.0 9 10 5 5 <5 <5
STFM5 8.0 10.0 11.0 12 16 <5 <5 <5 <5
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ANKM5 12.0 14.0 16.0 11 22 <5 5 <5 <5
MSPM5 16.0 16.5 17.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:MINNESOTA RIVER
SAVM5 702.0 710.0 712.0 41 57 5 9 <5 6
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
STPM5 14.0 15.0 17.0 7 22 7 14 <5 9
HSTM5 15.0 17.0 18.0 19 36 7 15 6 9
:ST CROIX RIVER
DANW3 7.0 8.5 10.0 <5 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SNAKE RIVER
MOAM5 11.0 13.0 14.0 30 31 14 20 8 10
PNCM5 9.0 10.0 11.0 7 9 <5 6 <5 <5
:ST CROIX RIVER
STLM5 87.0 88.0 89.0 11 21 9 15 8 8
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
RDWM5 680.5 681.5 683.0 9 24 6 12 <5 <5
:CANNON RIVER
NRFM5 897.0 899.0 900.0 7 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
REDM5 14.0 15.0 16.0 7 14 5 12 <5 5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0429 Z DH12 /DC2404231810/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 04/29/2024 - 07/28/2024
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:PRAIRIE RIVER
TACM5 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.8/ 5.9/ 7.5/ 8.4
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ATKM5 6.6/ 6.6/ 7.5/ 8.9/ 11.4/ 13.8/ 14.7
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LGPM5 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.8/ 5.2/ 6.2/ 7.4/ 8.0
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FTRM5 5.9/ 6.0/ 6.5/ 8.0/ 9.6/ 10.7/ 12.2
:SAUK RIVER
STCM5 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.6/ 4.2/ 5.2/ 6.0
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
SCOM5 5.9/ 5.9/ 6.1/ 6.7/ 7.9/ 9.0/ 9.9
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYM5 7.4/ 7.4/ 7.4/ 8.4/ 11.2/ 14.0/ 15.8
DELM5 12.5/ 12.5/ 12.6/ 13.0/ 15.8/ 17.8/ 19.5
:CROW RIVER
RKFM5 7.2/ 7.2/ 7.2/ 7.3/ 9.9/ 11.5/ 14.2
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AKAM5 6.0/ 6.0/ 6.0/ 6.6/ 8.8/ 10.9/ 12.5
:RUM RIVER
MCAM5 2.2/ 2.5/ 3.0/ 4.3/ 5.2/ 5.9/ 7.1
STFM5 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.3/ 6.4/ 7.5/ 8.2/ 9.5
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ANKM5 6.4/ 6.4/ 6.4/ 7.5/ 9.4/ 12.3/ 13.6
MSPM5 7.9/ 7.9/ 7.9/ 8.8/ 10.7/ 13.4/ 14.8
:MINNESOTA RIVER
SAVM5 694.6/ 694.6/ 697.6/ 700.9/ 705.6/ 707.9/ 710.8
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
STPM5 5.6/ 5.6/ 6.3/ 8.2/ 11.2/ 13.4/ 16.8
HSTM5 9.0/ 9.0/ 9.3/ 11.2/ 14.4/ 16.0/ 18.2
:ST CROIX RIVER
DANW3 1.8/ 1.8/ 2.3/ 3.5/ 4.7/ 5.7/ 7.0
:SNAKE RIVER
MOAM5 4.0/ 4.6/ 5.8/ 8.3/ 11.4/ 13.7/ 16.1
PNCM5 4.2/ 4.3/ 5.2/ 6.1/ 7.5/ 8.7/ 9.8
:ST CROIX RIVER
STLM5 79.6/ 79.6/ 79.8/ 82.2/ 84.1/ 87.4/ 89.5
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
RDWM5 674.4/ 674.4/ 674.5/ 676.4/ 678.2/ 680.4/ 681.9
:CANNON RIVER
NRFM5 891.4/ 891.5/ 892.1/ 893.4/ 894.6/ 896.4/ 897.5
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
REDM5 6.9/ 6.9/ 7.1/ 8.4/ 10.3/ 12.6/ 15.0
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0429 Z DH12 /DC2404231810/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 04/29/2024 - 07/28/2024
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:PRAIRIE RIVER
TACM5 3.5/ 3.4/ 3.0/ 2.6/ 2.4/ 2.1/ 1.9
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ATKM5 5.3/ 4.5/ 3.6/ 2.9/ 2.3/ 2.0/ 1.8
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LGPM5 2.8/ 2.7/ 2.2/ 1.7/ 1.5/ 1.2/ 1.2
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FTRM5 5.2/ 5.0/ 4.6/ 4.2/ 4.0/ 3.8/ 3.7
:SAUK RIVER
STCM5 2.7/ 2.3/ 1.4/ 1.1/ 0.9/ 0.8/ 0.7
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
SCOM5 5.4/ 5.2/ 4.8/ 4.5/ 4.3/ 4.1/ 4.1
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYM5 4.0/ 3.5/ 3.1/ 2.1/ 1.7/ 1.3/ 1.2
DELM5 8.4/ 8.0/ 7.5/ 6.3/ 5.9/ 5.4/ 5.3
:CROW RIVER
RKFM5 4.4/ 4.1/ 3.7/ 3.0/ 2.8/ 2.5/ 2.4
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AKAM5 5.2/ 4.8/ 4.6/ 4.5/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3
:RUM RIVER
MCAM5 2.1/ 2.0/ 1.9/ 1.8/ 1.7/ 1.6/ 1.4
STFM5 4.1/ 3.9/ 3.7/ 3.5/ 3.3/ 3.2/ 3.1
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ANKM5 4.7/ 4.0/ 3.4/ 2.6/ 2.1/ 1.8/ 1.7
MSPM5 6.2/ 5.7/ 5.2/ 4.7/ 4.4/ 4.2/ 4.1
:MINNESOTA RIVER
SAVM5 691.6/ 688.9/ 688.1/ 687.6/ 687.4/ 687.4/ 687.4
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
STPM5 4.3/ 3.6/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0
HSTM5 7.1/ 6.4/ 5.6/ 5.0/ 4.7/ 4.6/ 4.5
:ST CROIX RIVER
DANW3 1.2/ 1.1/ 1.0/ 0.9/ 0.9/ 0.8/ 0.8
:SNAKE RIVER
MOAM5 1.6/ 1.5/ 1.4/ 1.2/ 1.0/ 0.9/ 0.8
PNCM5 3.2/ 3.1/ 3.0/ 2.9/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.7
:ST CROIX RIVER
STLM5 76.8/ 76.0/ 75.5/ 75.4/ 75.3/ 75.2/ 75.2
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
RDWM5 671.2/ 670.2/ 669.1/ 668.4/ 668.0/ 667.8/ 667.7
:CANNON RIVER
NRFM5 890.6/ 890.5/ 890.1/ 889.8/ 889.6/ 889.4/ 889.4
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
REDM5 5.0/ 4.4/ 3.7/ 3.0/ 2.5/ 2.1/ 1.9
.END
:LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF
:THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
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